WTI Holds Firm After OPEC Surprise—Is the Bull Case Back?

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

Last Thursday’s Settlement: 67.00, down -0.45 [-0.67%] for the day, up +1.48 [+2.26%] for the week

Last week, crude oil featured a choppy trade as traders weighed OPEC+ output hikes against re-escalating Israel – Iran tensions and tight physical markets.

The anticipation of possible trade deals and the finalization of the “big beautiful bill” also helped to buoy futures last week.

Today, futures are higher by -0.22 [-0.23%] to 67.27

Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to a +548k bpd increase to output, more than the previous, and expected, hike of +411k bpd seen in prior months. At this pace, OPEC+ is set to unwind their voluntary cut program entirely by September.

This caused some initial selling on the overnight, but futures have largely rebounded as the current supply and demand situation looks tight and we head into a weekend where trade deals should start being signed.

The resilience of WTI futures in the face of higher than expected output hikes from OPEC is notable.

Data Releases:

OPEC+ Output Hike: +548k bpd vs +411k prior and expected.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures held the key 65.00 psych level on the initial overnight selling last night and have settled firmly back within the established trading range. Traders should expect heightened volatility this week as traders pare OPEC+ accelerated hikes against the current tight supply / demand backdrop

Futures remain above our longer-term pivot pocket, and 64.23*** represents a solid buying opportunity in our view. Consecutive settlements above 67.06*** would help build confidence in the bull case. The 65.00 low seen overnight may become a key, tradeable level here moving forward.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…