Are corn futures gearing up for a bigger rally?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Are corn futures gearing up for a bigger rally?

Corn futures have had an impressive recovery since the bearish WASDE report last month. With a change in the technical landscape, the Bulls are reclaiming control of the chart
 

Crop Progress Update

  • Soybean conditions drop to 65% good/excellent, a 4% drop from the previous week and 3% below expectations.
  • Corn conditions at 69% were down 2%, but in line with expectations.
  • The corn ratings were still the highest for this time of year since 2016 while soybean ratings were in line with 2024.

 

Weekly Export Inspections Update
Export inspections for corn and soybeans were near the top end of estimates while wheat was above the top end of expectations.


Corn

Market Recap
Dec Corn futures ended at a one month high of 423’0 Tuesday, gaining 2’6. Across all maturities, 408,066 contracts were traded, with 246,406 done in the Dec maturity. Combined open interest rose by 10,489, or 0.73%, with Dec dropping 880 (0.10%) to 870,316.

Technicals (December)
December corn futures were lower early in yesterday’s trade but staged a nice reversal off of the 50-day moving average, to close at a new high for the move. In the overnight trade prices are quietly mixed. Higher lows and higher highs continues to be the trend. A break and close back below our pivot pocket from 414 3/4-416 1/2 would start to neutralize our short term bias. Upside objectives from here are little changed with the first target from here coming in from 430 1/4-432 3/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 430 1/4-432 3/4****
Pivot: 414 3/4-416 1/2
Support: 396 3/4-399***, 383-387**


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Oct 420 calls with 8,120 done and the Dec 395 puts with volume of 6,207. Calls with the greatest open interest are the Dec 450 strike (38,895), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (58,183).

Vol Update
Corn implied volatility was sharply up as CVL increased by 0.99 to finish at 20.54, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility settled off 0.22% to 29.19%. The CVL Skew ended the session moderately lower, dropping 0.17 to close at 1.97.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.2.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds are net short 110,686 futures and options. That is about 34k less than the prior week. about 2/3rds of that came from short covering with the rest coming from new longs. This is the smallest net short position since May.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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