A WILD Week Leaves Grain Prices Back at Square One

Weekly Grain Market Recap

SOYBEANS

Soybeans experienced significant volatility this week, driven primarily by renewed Chinese buying activity. Prices rallied early in the week on growing optimism around Chinese purchases following the trade war truce, with futures climbing nearly 3% on Monday to a 17-month high. The optimism was backed by concrete action as China’s state-owned COFCO purchased at least 840,000 metric tons for December and January shipment—China’s largest U.S. soybean purchase since January.
The USDA confirmed multiple flash sales throughout the week totaling over 1.5 million metric tons to China for 2025/26 delivery. However, markets gave back gains mid-week as “Buy the rumor, sell the news” took hold and as traders viewed prices as “overbought”. Despite the renewed optimism some doubt remains as China is far from the White House’s stated target of 12 million tons for the year. For the week January futures were 1/2 of a cent higher.
On the supply side, U.S. soybean crush hit a record 227.6 million bushels in October, beating all trade estimates and demonstrating robust domestic demand from expanding biofuel processing capacity. Weekly export inspections totaled 1.18 million metric tons, running above the previous week but well behind last year’s pace, with marketing year-to-date exports at 10.1 million tons versus 17.6 million last year.
Internationally, Brazil’s 2025/26 planting reached 71% complete, lagging last year’s 80% pace due to irregular rainfall. Safras & Mercado lowered its Brazilian crop forecast to 178.8 million tons from 180.9 million tons, though this still represents a 4% increase from the previous season. Argentina faces more serious challenges, with severe flooding in Buenos Aires province leaving 1.5 million hectares at high risk of remaining unproductive. Planting sits at just 24.6% complete—12.9% behind the five-year average—and approximately 70% of local farmland is either underwater or suffering from excess moisture.

CORN

Corn markets struggled to tag along with soybeans and wheat early in the week which raised caution flags about what it might do if soybeans and wheat pull back. As you may have imagined, it led to weakness with March down 6 1/4 cents on the week, putting prices at critical support points on the chart into the weekend.
Weekly export inspections were strong at 2.05 million metric tons, above the previous week’s 1.48 million and keeping the marketing year well ahead of last year’s pace at 15.8 million tons versus 9.2 million. 2025/26 corn exports remain on a record pace with ample time remaining in the export window.
Looking ahead, S&P Global Energy projected U.S. farmers will reduce 2026 corn plantings by 3.8% to 95.0 million acres, representing a 3.7 million acre decline as producers shift toward more profitable soybeans. Brazil’s first corn crop planting reached 85% complete in the center-south region, slightly behind last year’s 87%. Brazilian November corn exports are projected at 6.36 million tons according to ANEC, up from 6.04 million the previous week.
In Argentina, late-season corn planting is progressing better than soybeans at 37.3% of the planned 7.8 million hectares, with all planted fields rated in normal to excellent condition despite the widespread flooding issues.

WHEAT

Wheat futures were strong to start the week but started to slide mid-week with prices trading back to the low end of the recent range on Friday. For the week, March Chicago wheat was 1 3/4 cents lower.
Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 246,533 metric tons, below both the previous week’s 291,443 tons and the low end of trade expectations. However, marketing year-to-date exports remain ahead of last year at 12.4 million tons versus 10.4 million.
China provided a bright spot with a confirmed purchase of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat for 2025/26 delivery. S&P Global Energy projects total U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 44.0 million acres, down 1.3 million from 2025, with winter wheat plantings estimated at 32.4 million acres versus 33.2 million the previous year.
Internationally, Ukraine announced it will not restrict wheat exports in the 2025/26 season due to a higher harvest and lower export rates. The country expects to harvest around 23 million tons with exports reaching approximately 17 million tons, up from 15.7 million last season. India is also expanding wheat acreage by about 5% to a record high, aided by improved soil moisture from October rains. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 20.3% complete and delivering above-average yields, with production estimates raised to a record 24 million tons.

Livestock Summary
Livestock markets saw an uptick in volatility to round out the week. At the close, February live cattle futures were 90 cents lower to 214.50, that was nearly 6 ½ dollars off the low. For the week, the contract was 4.75 lower. January feeder cattle futures opened limit down at 307.12, but settled at 314.17, which was down 2.20, that grew losses for the week to 6.32. On the snout side, February lean hogs dropped 2.05 to settle at 77.60, which put them 1.67 lower on the week.
Analysts point to President Trump removing the 40% tariff on Brazilian food products, including beef, as a key factor in recent price pressure. Ranchers, traders, and analysts will also keep a close eye on screwworm developments and any progress made there that could impact the US and Mexico Cattle trade. The USDA announced on Friday that a new website, screwworm.gov is now live and will provide updates.
On the same topic of the USDA, this afternoon they released their first Cattle on Feed report since September. That report showed On Feed at 98%, which was in line with expectations. Placements 90%, which was slightly below the average estimate. And marketings of 92% which was largely in line with expectations.