Grain Futures Hold Steady in Quiet Pre-Thanksgiving Trading

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Grain Market Summary

 
November 25, 2025
 
 

Corn

 
Closing Prices: March corn futures gained 1 1/2 of a cent today, settling at 438 1/4. Today’s range was contained within the prior days range and came in at just 2 3/4 cents. The 14-day average true range has dropped below 6 cents. We expect the quiet trade to persist through the Holiday week. Support and resistance levels remain intact from this morning’s Grain Express report.
 
Production & Supply: The U.S. corn harvest is virtually complete at 96%, producing what’s estimated to be the biggest crop in U.S. history. This record production has added to already ample global supplies.
 
Export Activity: Brazil’s corn exports are projected at 6.11 million metric tons for November, down slightly from 6.36 million tons the previous week. South Korea’s major feedmill group purchased approximately 68,000 metric tons of U.S. corn in a private deal, priced at $249.78 per ton outright or at a 197-cent premium over Chicago March 2026 futures. The corn will ship from the Pacific Northwest between January 1-31, 2026.
 
 
 
 

Soybeans

 
Closing Prices: January soybeans gained 1 1/2 cents today, settling at 1124 3/4. Today’s range was within yesterday’s range, which technicians refer to as an inside day. The 14-day average true range continued to contract today, dropping to 18 1/2 cents. Support and resistance levels remain intact from this morning’s Grain Express report.
 
U.S.-China Trade Relations: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was on CNBC this morning and noted that Chinese soybean purchases are “right on schedule” under an “agreement” for Beijing to buy 87.5 million metric tons over the next three and a half years. The USDA reported China purchased nearly 1.6 million metric tons last week, plus an additional 123,000 tons on Monday. Two cargo vessels were en route to New Orleans terminals to load China’s first U.S. soybean shipments since May, signaling renewed trade flows.
 
Brazilian Competition: Brazil’s soybean exports are projected at 4.40 million metric tons for November, down from 4.71 million tons the previous week. Brazilian soymeal exports are also declining, expected to reach 2.50 million metric tons versus 2.68 million tons previously.
 
Market Implications: The resumption of Chinese purchases, even if less than some may want, provides a meaningful shift in overall sentiment to U.S. soybean markets. The U.S.-China relationship appears to be stabilizing, with President Trump and President Xi potentially meeting four times in the coming year, including state visits and international summits. This improved trade dynamic could support steady demand for U.S. soybeans.
 
 
 
 

Wheat

 
Closing Prices: Like corn and soybeans, wheat posted a daily range within the prior day’s range, though it was the strongest of the three in today’s trade. Important to note that this comes on the back of being the weakest link to start the week. Support and resistance levels remain intact from this morning’s Grain Express.
 
Crop Development: The 2026 U.S. winter wheat crop is 97% seeded, up from 92% the previous week, with seeding nearly complete. Crop conditions improved to 48% good-excellent from 45% the prior week, now in line with five-year averages. Beneficial weekend rains over the U.S. Plains boosted moisture levels, though roughly one-quarter of the crop remains too dry.
 
International Competition: The wheat market faces strong global competition. Falling Russian prices, ongoing harvests in Argentina and Australia, and results from a Saudi import tender kept upward momentum limited. EU soft wheat exports reached 9.19 million metric tons since July, compared to 9.69 million tons a year earlier, while EU barley exports surged to 4.39 million tons versus 1.89 million tons last year.
 
Ukrainian Developments: Ukrainian farmers have sown 6.4 million hectares of winter crops (98.1% of expected area) for the 2026 harvest, with winter grain area increasing to 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 million hectares in 2025. Favorable November weather with warm temperatures and effective precipitation significantly improved soil moisture across key growing regions.
 
U.S. Export Activity: The USDA reported weekly net export sales of 613,900 metric tons for the week ended October 9 (delayed due to the government shutdown). However, basis bids for hard red winter wheat remained flat in the Plains as trading slowed ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
 
Market Implications: The well-supplied global wheat market with abundant competition from Russia, Argentina, Australia, and increased Ukrainian production gains to a minimum. Improved U.S. crop conditions and adequate moisture in most areas suggest decent production potential for 2026, though drought concerns persist in some regions.
 
 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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