Soybeans Breakdown and Cattle Breakout!

Weekly Grain Market Summary

Tuesday’s WASDE estimates at the bottom of this page

Market Overview

Grain markets experienced choppy trading throughout the week before finishing uniformly lower on Friday. March corn futures closed down 2½ cents at 444¾, losing 3 cents for the week. January soybeans dropped 14¼ cents to settle at 1105¼, marking a 32½ cent weekly decline—the first weekly loss in eight weeks. March Chicago wheat fell 4½ cents to 535¾, down 2¾ cents on the week.

SOYBEANS

U.S. Market Developments: U.S.-China trade relations showed significant improvement over the last several weeks.  U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated trade relations with China have stabilized, though he emphasized the need for more balanced, smaller-scale trade focused on non-sensitive goods.

South American Production: Brazil’s soybean planting for 2025/26 reached 89% of expected area as of late November, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but lagging last year’s 91%. Irregular rainfall continues to impact key producing states including Mato Grosso, Goias, Maranhao, and Piaui, while Rio Grande do Sul faces declining moisture after early-season excess.

StoneX cut Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 0.9% to 177.2 million metric tons, citing productivity reductions in Mato Grosso and Goias despite modest area expansion. Despite the revision, the forecast still points to a record crop. Brazilian exporter 3tentos expects soybean origination to grow from 4.11 million tons in 2025 to 4.8 million tons in 2026.

Anec maintained its projection for record Brazilian soybean exports of 110 million tons in 2025, up from 97.3 million tons last year, driven primarily by Chinese demand.

Chinese Demand: The USDA’s Beijing post forecasts China’s 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 million metric tons, down 1 million tons year-over-year as Beijing continues limiting import growth. The projection reflects restrained crushing demand growth of 2% and government efforts to control imports. China’s domestic production is forecast at 19.9 million metric tons.

CORN

South American Developments: Brazil’s first corn crop planting reached 99% completion as of late November in the key center-south region, ahead of last year’s 97%. However, StoneX lowered Brazil’s total 2025/26 corn crop forecast by 0.6% to 134.4 million metric tons, with the second corn crop projection reduced 1.1% to 105.8 million tons due to potential planting delays from the delayed soybean cycle.

Anec reduced its 2025 Brazilian corn export forecast by 1 million tons to 41 million tons, citing increasingly higher domestic demand from the booming corn ethanol and meat industries. Despite the reduction, exports could still show growth compared to 2024’s 37.8 million tons. December shipments are expected to reach 4.99 million tons, up nearly 38% from last year.

Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Datagro noted that growing ethanol demand should accommodate expansion of both corn and cane-based ethanol production. Brazil raised its mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 30% from 27% earlier this year. 3tentos announced plans for a new corn processing plant in Para state, scheduled for completion in the second half of 2028, capable of processing 2,100 tons of corn daily to produce ethanol and DDGs.

Ukraine Situation: Ukraine’s corn exports fell dramatically to 3.99 million metric tons as of December 5 in the 2025/26 season, compared to 7.6 million tons on the same date last year. Maritime export terminals have reduced grain intake due to constant Russian attacks on Black Sea ports in the Odesa region, which handle nearly 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports.

Farmers had harvested corn from only 78% of planted area as of December 4, compared to 95% last year, with slow progress attributed to the need for grain drying and locomotive shortages for rail transport to ports. A Russian-flagged tanker carrying sunflower oil reported a drone attack off Turkey’s coast, though the crew was unharmed.

International Demand: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group issued a tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, or South Africa.

Argentina: The government increased biofuel prices for mandatory blending, setting corn-based bioethanol at 883.464 pesos per liter, up from 841.394 pesos, with changes effective immediately.

WHEAT

Russia: Russia harvested more than 145 million metric tons of grain in bunker weight this year, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev. The official clean weight forecast stands at 135 million tons. Despite drought in southern grain-producing regions, losses were offset by better-than-expected harvests in central regions and Siberia. Winter grain crops for the 2026 harvest were sown on the planned 20 million hectares.

Ukraine: Ukraine completed 99.3% of winter wheat sowing for the 2026 harvest, planting 4.74 million hectares as of December 1. The farmers’ union UAC reported crops will enter winter in good condition with sufficient moisture and no problems identified. Favorable weather conditions support government forecasts for wheat output of 24-25 million tons next year, up from 23 million tons in 2025. The government confirmed it will not limit wheat exports in the 2025/26 season.

Ukraine’s total grain exports decreased to 3.0 million tons in November 2025 from 3.6 million tons in November 2024, with wheat shipments holding steady at 1.1 million tons while corn exports declined.