E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6965.75, down 27.00 on Friday and up 20.00 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 25,670.00, down 329.25 on Friday and 68.25 on the week
There was a lot to unpack last week. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Powell’s successor was officially tapped by President Trump on Friday morning. At midweek, Kevin Warsh’s name was not the favorite. Although he is expected to do President Trump’s bidding, a path to lower rates, markets raced to price in someone with a more hawkish yet nuanced history. Into this morning, the U.S. Dollar Index has gained 2% from Tuesday’s low, a meaningful move in currency markets. However, rate markets have been more muted, though the curve steepened a bit.
The move across the macro space, led by U.S. Dollar strength, forced an unwinding of momentum in the metals, and certainly weighed on risk sentiment broadly. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures both finished lower on Friday. While the bludgeoning in software was front and center, with the IGV shedding more than 7% from Wednesday’s close, the reversal in semis on Friday and the rotation into staples and healthcare were notable.
The week ahead is big. A deluge of economic data begins with the ISM Manufacturing report this morning at 9:00 am CT, and concludes Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls. The earnings calendar is jam-packed, too, with PLTR due after the bell today, AMD tomorrow, LLY, UBER, and GOOG on Wednesday, and AMZN on Thursday.
Amid Friday’s choppy but weak tape, E-mini S&P futures traded to an intraday high of 6991.25, nearly covering Thursday’s strong settlement of 6992.75. We have had and will maintain major three-star resistance at 6987.25-6992.75; the bulls must achieve a close above here in order to reopen a path to record highs. Price action gapped lower on the open last night from Friday’s settlement of 6965.75; the sellers will hold a slight edge while below here. However, despite the weak tape, the intraday path was constructive on Friday, and the bulls could begin to regain their edge if price action holds above major three-star support at…
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