Livestock Markets on Edge
A softer end to the week for livestock markets. Will the pressure resume or will buyers step in?
January 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly
All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2026 totaled 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head on January 1, 2025.
All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly below the 37.3 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef cows, at 27.6 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.57 million head, were up 2 percent from the previous year.
All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 18.0 million head, 1 percent below the 18.1 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.71 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.90 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.40 million head, were 2 percent below a year earlier.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 15.6 million head, down 1 percent from January 1, 2025.
Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 2.01 million head, up slightly from January 1, 2025.
Calves under 500 pounds as of January 1, 2026 totaled 13.3 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2025.
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.8 million head on January 1, 2026. The inventory is down 3 percent from the January 1, 2025 total of 14.3 million head. Cattle on feed in
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2026, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over
500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.5 million head, was 1 percent above January 1, 2025.
Calf Crop Down 2 Percent
The 2025 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from the previous year’s calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2025 were estimated at 24.2 million head, down 2 percent from the first half of 2024. Calves born during the second half of 2025 were estimated at 8.70 million head, 26 percent of the total 2025 calf crop.
Revisions
All inventory and calf crop estimates for January 1, 2025 and July 1, 2025 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on the
findings of this review, 2024 calf crop decreased by 0.3 percent. January 1, 2025 all cattle and calves decreased by 0.2 percent and all cows and heifers that have calved increased by 0.2 percent. State level estimates were reviewed and changes were made to reallocate inventory estimates to the United States total.
Live Cattle (April)
April live cattle futures softened up in the back half of last week’s trade, amidst a lot of volatility in other major commodity markets. The market settled right on the 20-day moving average 236.56. A failure to defend this on a closing basis and we can see a retest of the lower end of the range and the 100-day moving average, 232.15. Volatility in other commodities was seen overnight; this may also play a role in price action today.
Resistance: 239.25-240.15****
Pivot: 235.60-236.33
Support: 231.50-232.15***, 226.85**, 224.70-225.65***, 218.00-219.00***