Grain Markets Firm. Can it Hold?

Corn

Technicals (March)
March corn futures broke below the 20-day moving average yesterday which took prices into our pivot pocket from 425-427 1/4. So far that has held as the market firms in the early morning trade to try and get back out above the 20-day. All in all this is a pretty quiet market and we wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue to be the case into March options expiration at the end of the week. If you’re just looking at open interest, you’d probably conclude that 430 might have a gravitational pull to it.

Soybeans

Technicals (March)
March soybean futures are making new highs for the move this morning, posting the highest price since December 2nd. If you’re a producer and at the end of December you told yourself “man, I should have sold some beans on that rally earlier in the month, here is your opportunity. Also important to remember as a producer, you’re perpetually long the market. We’ve had a more friendly stance on the new crop November contract which is now less than a dime away from contract highs. But again, you need to be clear on what kind of participant you are in the market, a hedger or a speculator. Though we think we could see more upward movement, nobody knows for certain, so producers would be wise to play some defense here.

Wheat

Technicals (March)
March Chicago wheat futures got hit hard yesterday, fully retracing the breakout point from last Thursday. The market has used that as a bit of a springboard in the early morning trade as the 20-day moving average continues to move out above the 100-day, which is a technical tailwind. If yesterday’s low can hold, that would also mark a higher low. The 200-day moving average at 551 has been a brick wall, above that and there could be some runway for the market to move. With March approaching first notice day, you’ll likely want to give yourself some more time in the May or July contract.