Crude Oil Stalls Near 66 as Iran Talks Hit Pause

President Trump has put the ball in Iran’s court on negotiations, and talks are seemingly at a standstill.

Yesterday’s EIA report was notably bullish but numbers remain skewed due to freezing temperatures and some large one-off flows.

We would be cautious about adding new longs and favor profit-taking near 66.04***. If traders want to short this market, risk-defined strategies should be favored. A full military conflict with Iran would still cause a price shock to the upside.

Weekly Technical History:

Monday – Risk remains skewed to the upside and our 62.57*** level has held for now. US based price action will be telling. While we price risk to the upside, patience is required on additional longs as this catalyst may take some time to play out. President Trump is erratic, Iran is erratic, and peace negotiations themselves are inherently erratic – so trying to put an exact timer on this catalyst is a fools errand.

Monday – We still favor risk-defined upside plays through the weekend as upside volatility remains underpriced relative to the potential catalyst in-play (in our opinion).

Tuesday – With the record call activity yesterday, traders should be patient if looking to position on the upside. There is a clear trend-line developing, but chaotic Iran headlines are likely needed to break out of this trading range.

Tuesday – Yesterday our intraday outlook posted first resistance at 63.90 with the probability of a run towards 64.50 if breached. Price is consolidating up at that 64.50 level this morning which aids in our bullish tilt.

Wednesday – Price has reached the upper band of resistance at 65.52***. New headlines surrounding Iran have come to light, and a breakout of this trading range is entirely likely, but taking some profits at these levels is prudent.

Thursday – Yesterday, CL punched out above our key resistance level of 65.52*** into the US open, making a high of 65.83. Prices reversed off these highs as US trading came online, but not with as much fervor as we had seen in prior weeks. Intraday prices continued to hold firm’ish around our intraday pivot around 64.80. Prices had not reached the lower band of intraday price discovery until 4:30am which was met with a Bid.

Thursday – Profit taking near that 65.52*** was our tilt yesterday. Today we’re looking to add-back some risk-defined long exposure in options markets. Vol looks relatively cheap when paired against the catalysts out there. Staying risk-defined helps protect against any “erratic” behavior out of our Executive branch.

Friday – Crude is holding that previous *** level of 62.20 this morning, reaffirming our confidence – for now – in that level. Risk remains tilted to the upside through the weekend and we like risk-defined upside plays. Vol is too cheap and we had shaved long exposure at 65.52*** on Tuesday.

Friday – Outside of Iran, keep an eye on the macro-catalysts. This credit blow-up could be a mess.

Monday – Holding of the 62.57*** level is key today. Risk is still skewed to the upside. Volumes and volatility are likely lighter today on holiday volumes.

Wednesday – Price action was disappointing, but held support at 61.85***. Headlines throughout the day may provide for better entry than this morning, liquidity remains scarce pre US open.

Thursday – Favored profit taking and shaving near 66.04*** level.

Updated Technical:

Yesterday’s rally punched out above the local 65.48*** high (01/29/26), and the longer-term high of 66.04*** (07/30/2025). The overnight high of 66.79 into 66.90 is a key region to watch through the US session.

With the ball in Iran’s court on negotiations, risk for the day looks tilted to the downside. Our Iran catalyst we began playing around 60.00 is mainstream chatter now and risk-premium within futures has been added with velocity. Some retraction on “positive” Iran rhetoric could come through the weekend.