Oil Surges Above $70 as Iran Conflict Expands

**Daily chart shown above is a front-month continuous as May futures no longer contain applicable levels

For the last (nearly) two months, our bull thesis has been based on US military strikes on Iran. With our catalyst realized, we have taken profits on our remaining long positioning.

Some new information we’re paying attention to is the regime’s strikes on neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia. Aramco facilities have been targeted, with the Kingdom’s 2nd largest oil refinery being damaged by a drone strike.

The targeting of Middle Eastern allies by Iran is brazen, and if it continues, could support oil above 70.00 for some time.

Also, Ukraine has launched strikes that hit one of Russia’s largest refineries.

The key for today is for price to hold out above the 70.00 level. This conflict will be ongoing, and direct Western involvement within Iran is likely needed for the next 10+ years. The problem with replacing a religious autocracy is that there is no soil for the roots of self-governance to take hold. After this regime is eliminated, significant hand-holding will be required.

Weekly Technical History:

Monday 2/16- Holding of the 62.57*** level is key today. Risk is still skewed to the upside. Volumes and volatility are likely lighter today on holiday volumes.

Wednesday – Price action was disappointing, but held support at 61.85***. Headlines throughout the day may provide for better entry than this morning, liquidity remains scarce pre US open.

Thursday – Favored profit taking and shaving near 66.04*** level.

Friday – Yesterday’s rally punched out above the local 65.48*** high (01/29/26), and the longer-term high of 66.04*** (07/30/2025). The overnight high of 66.79 into 66.90 is a key region to watch through the US session.

Friday = With the ball in Iran’s court on negotiations, risk for the day looks tilted to the downside. Our Iran catalyst we began playing around 60.00 is mainstream chatter now and risk-premium within futures has been added with velocity. Some retraction on “positive” Iran rhetoric could come through the weekend.

Tuesday – Yesterday’s high of 67.05 should be watched closely today. Iran is still up in the air and the strait of Hormuz closure still presents an upside catalyst. Risk is skewed to the upside, but some profit taking up at these levels is prudent for the customers long since the 60.00 level.

Wednesday – CL held the lows of 65.24 yesterday, and is rallying today despite the OPEC+ headlines. Iran based buying is still the main catalyst driving this market. But, be aware of these OPEC+ headlines weighing on markets.

Thursday – We’re trading into key support this morning around the 64.40 level, a break here could trigger further downside unless a new and bullish catalyst comes into the picture.

Friday – The new bullish catalyst needed was introduced overnight / this morning with the leave country order for US citizens in Israel and war between Pakistan and the Taliban. If a breakout is confirmed through the US open, we’re looking at a pretty bullish setup

Updated Technical:

Holding of 70.00 is the key. We are in the process of establishing a new range accelerated volatility is likely. The initiation of new long positions should be done with prudence. The Iran war premium has been building for some time, but strikes on allies is new information.