Corn Futures Continue to Offer Ample Opportunities
Corn futures held where they needed to in yesterday’s session. Can the market use that to propel a rally back above 450?
Outside Markets & Headlines
Outside markets are pretty calm in the Thursday morning trade. Stock indices have traded on both sides of unchanged and are currently near the flat line. Oil is back near the highs of the week, but it isn’t trading in a panicky fashion. The US Dollar is firming up after the market caught it’s breath yesterday, following the big rally on Monday and Tuesday. Precious metals are modestly higher, but are mostly confined to the previous day’s range. Silver did take a nosedive right around Midnight (central time) but has managed to recover back to where it was trading prior to that breakdown.
BEIJING, March 5 (Reuters) – China aims to achieve grain output of around 700 million metric tons in 2026, unchanged from 2025, a copy of an official government report reviewed by Reuters showed on Thursday.
China will establish “stable and controllable” overseas supply channels, diversify agricultural imports, allow limited imports of scarce high-quality agricultural products, and align trade with domestic production, according to its 2026-2030 plan released on Thursday.
Corn
Technicals (May)
Corn futures were lower yesterday, following Tuesday’s bearish reversal. The silver lining is that the market held exactly where it needed too, and then managed to bounce into the close. We outlined that major 4-star support pocket as 439 3/4-441 3/4 (yesterday’s low: 440 1/4). The market is no levitating back near our pivot pocket from 446-447 3/4. If the market can reclaim ground above here on a closing basis that would help cement higher lows and potentially take us to higher highs for the move. First resistance above that pivot pocket remains intact from 453-454 1/2. Shorter term trade setups continue to be available for traders on both sides of the market.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 453-454 1/2****, 460-461***
Pivot: 446-447 3/4
Support: 439 3/4-441 3/4****
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 29,079 Futures contracts. Broken down, that was 18,994 of short covering and 10,085 of new longs. This is the smallest net short position since January 6th, 12,830.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.
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