Grain Futures Surge Higher Sunday Night. Will it Last?
Oil futures continued to surge higher Sunday night, trading to the highest levels since 2022. The move higher continued to add a tailwind to grains, which hit new highs. If crude oil retraces some of the recent gains, will grains follow?
Outside Markets & Headlines
Wicked moves in the Sunday night trade with crude oil futures impacting nearly every other market after ripping 31% to trade to the highest levels since 2022. Equity markets were down about 2.5% on the lows with rotations and volatility seen across other markets as well. Some of those moves have been walked back, into the original gap open from Sunday night, on headlines that G7 finance ministers discussed the possible release of emergency oil reserves. Expect volatility to remain high as headline risk lingers, on both sides of the market. Headlines from US officials, including this Truth Social post from the President: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT”
(Reuters): The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, is virtually shut. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel.
Important Note
*If you’re new (experienced) to futures trading, smaller contracts have been made available in recent years by the CME Group, allowing for more dynamic positioning in commodities such as gold (as small as 1oz contracts), silver (as small as 100oz contracts), oil (as small as 100 barrel contracts), etc. If you’re interested in trading any of those products on your own or with a broker, please reach out: 312-278-0500.
If you’re not a client yet, but would like to be, here is a link to the 10-15 minute online application: Open your account today!
Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45am CT!
Corn
Technicals (May)
Corn futures continued their rally in the overnight trade, trading to the highest levels since last May. The surge higher has brought the RSI to 74.98, the most overnight level in over a year. The overnight high of 476 will be the new level of resistance to keep and eye on. On the flipside, old resistance will now act as support, that comes in from 461-464 3/4. Keep you’re eye on crude oil, as it will likely be a near term leader in the direction. Unpredictable (timing wise) headlines are to be expected.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 476**, 487 1/4-488****
Pivot: 471 1/4
Support: 461-464 3/4****, 453-454 1/2***, 446-447 3/4***
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of a whopping 65,477 Futures contracts, keep in mind that is only through last Tuesday. The bulk of the buying continued to lean heavy on short covering. Broken down, that was 46,233 of short covering and 19,244 of new longs.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for December corn over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.
Ready to dig in?
Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox.