Grain Markets Rally Into the Early Morning

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Rally Into the Early Morning

Daily ranges for grain markets have been expanding as uncertainty and debate continue to mount. Shorter term traders who can put their longer term bias on the back burner continue to be presented with ample opportunity on both sides of the market.

 

Outside Markets & Headlines

Outside markets are mixed in the overnight trade, with equity markets fractionally lower while crude oil firms, though in a less volatile manner. The dollar is firm and metals on the softer side. A lot of these flows continue to have a high correlation, which currently offers opportunity for “cross asset hedging”. With that said, correlations don’t last forever, and if volatility in oil dwindles, we’d imagine correlations would do the same.

 

If you’re interested in being more active throughout the trading day, (whether it be grains, oil, metals, etc.) do not hesitate to reach out to our trade desk! 312-278-0500

 

Grain Market Specific Headlines

USDA raised its estimate of world corn stocks to 292.75 million metric tons from 288.98 million in February due to increases in Brazil, Ukraine and India. Analysts had expected 289.19 million metric tons, according to a Reuters poll.

USDA kept its estimate of 2025-26 U.S. corn stocks unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, while analysts expected 2.136 billion bushels.

 

The USDA projected global soybean stocks at 125.31 million metric tons, compared to 125.51 million tons in February, and kept its U.S. soybean stocks forecast unchanged at 350 million bushels.

 

In addition to monitoring the Middle East conflict, traders have been watching to see whether Chinese demand for U.S. supplies resumes ahead of a planned meeting between the nations’ leaders. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier mid-month in Paris. President Trump is scheduled to visit China to meet with Xi Jinping at the end of the month (March 31- April 2) -Reuters

Corn


Technicals (May)
May corn futures pulled back to our first support pocket, to a T. We’ve outlined that as 445-447 3/4, the low was 445 1/2. The market bounced and managed to close right near our pivot pocket 453-454. That will continue to be a near term inflection point. Stabilization above here, which we are seeing in the early morning trade, keeps the door open for a retest of first resistance from 461-464 3/4. As mentioned previously, the range expansion and volatility in both directions (a 30 cent range in the first two days of the week!) continues to offer a lot of opportunity for shorter term traders who can put their longer term bias on the back burner. The RSI is at 62 with the 14-day average true range nearing 8 cents, the highest levels since July.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 461-464 3/4****, 476**, 487 1/4-488****
Pivot: 453-454 1/2
Support: 445-447 3/4***, 331 1/2-443 3/4**


Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of a whopping 65,477 Futures contracts, keep in mind that is only through last Tuesday. The bulk of the buying continued to lean heavy on short covering. Broken down, that was 46,233 of short covering and 19,244 of new longs.

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for December corn over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.

Ready to dig in? 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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