Grain Markets Run Back to the Highs!

Outside Markets & Headlines

Outside markets have been a little on edge for much of the night with Crude oil trading back near $96 (currently about $91). Stock index futures took out the previous day’s low but are working to find their footing with crude off of the overnight highs. The USD is modestly higher and precious metals firming after a softer evening trade.

Grain Market Specific Headlines

Cargill halts Brazil soy shipments to China due to inspection changes, executive says -Reuters

Cargill has paused soybean export operations from Brazil to China after inspection changes made by the Brazilian government that make it difficult for traders to comply, the company’s Latin America head Paulo Sousa said on Wednesday.

Sousa said Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry adopted a stricter sanitary evaluation on soybeans bound for China to check for pests and weeds after a request from the Chinese government. He said the new system is something unusual in the grains market. “We have a standard inspection system in the trade, with samplings. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry started doing its own new type of analysis,” Sousa said, adding the change brings different results from inspections.

“As a result, sanitary certificates that need to go along with the shipments to the destination, in some cases are not being issued,” he said on the sidelines of the Argentina Week 2026 conference hosted by Bank of America in New York.

Without the certificates, soy vessels cannot travel. Cargill has also stopped buying beans from local farmers in Brazil, Sousa said, since it cannot export them to China for the moment. Some posts on X on Wednesday by Brazilian grain brokers and farmers cited that there were hardly any bids by traders to buy local soybeans. China is by far the biggest client of Brazilian soybeans, buying around 80% of the beans the South American country exports. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed. The executive said the new inspections started early last week. There are ongoing negotiations, but so far no solution, he said. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry did not return a request for comment late on Wednesday. Brazilian grains export lobby ANEC said in a note on Wednesday there are worries among exporters about how they will be able to align operations to the new inspection system when Brazil is in the peak period of soy exports.

China’s Sinofert warns against fertilizer hoarding amid global supply worries

-Reuters

China’s state-owned Sinofert on Thursday told customers not to speculate, hoard or drive up fertilizer prices during the spring planting season, the state-backed Securities Times reported. The Iran war has shut down fertilizer plants in the region and disrupted key shipping routes, potentially tightening supplies to major importers just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting.

OTHER DETAILS:

China’s phosphate and compound fertilizer industry association has also repeatedly urged phosphoric ammonium producers and distributors to ensure adequate agricultural supply and keep prices stable.

China is largely self-sufficient in fertilizers and does not rely on Gulf imports, while maintaining large reserves, said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

However, more than half of China’s Sulphur imports come from the Middle East.

China may tighten fertilizer export controls due to the conflict, two agricultural analysts have said, although such restrictions may not be formally announced and instead be communicated privately to major producers and customs authorities.

Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures are working back to the upside today with help from the energy complex surging back higher. Expect the volatility there to keep the volatility here alive. 461-464 3/4 is the 4-star resistance pocket we outlined yesterday. The market is flirting with that in the early morning trade which should make today interesting. If the Bulls can achieve a conviction close above here, a retest of the Sunday night highs could be in store. On the flipside, a failure and a pullback to the mid-450s seems probable. Commodity flows and energy prices will likely be the determining factor on which where we go from here, as they continue to act as a real time barometer of commodity flows.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 476**, 487 1/4-488****
Pivot: 461-464 3/4
Support: 453-454 1/2***, 445-447 3/4***, 331 1/2-443 3/4**

Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of a whopping 65,477 Futures contracts, keep in mind that is only through last Tuesday. The bulk of the buying continued to lean heavy on short covering. Broken down, that was 46,233 of short covering and 19,244 of new longs.

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for December corn over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.