Markets Chop Around Ahead of Another Weekend of Uncertainty

Outside Markets & Headlines

Stock index futures have traded on both sides of unchanged in the overnight trade, with a high inverse correlation to oil futures, which have also been on both sides of unchanged, currently near unchanged.

US issues 30-day license for sanctioned stranded Russian oil purchases
Russian envoy says the move will affect 100 million barrels of oil
The Trump administration is considering waiving the century-old Jones Act for a limited period to ensure energy ​and agricultural shipments can move freely between U.S. ports, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday, in a bid to combat ‌Iran-related supply disruptions.
“In the interest of national defense, the White House is considering waiving the Jones Act for a limited period of time to ensure vital energy products and agricultural necessities are flowing freely to U.S. ports,” Leavitt said in a statement.

Grain Market Specific Headlines

The sixth round of negotiations with China since last year will take place in France from March 14th to March 17th.

China will release fertilizers from national commercial reserves ahead of spring planting, it said on Friday, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict in the Middle East disrupts global supplies.

Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures made a push higher yesterday but finished off the highs and below the gap higher open, leaving another questionable candle on the chart. Though no technical damage has been done, there are two long tails this week that may indicate a near term ceiling. Consecutive closes back below our pivot pocket from 461-464 3/4 could trigger technical profit taking from recent buyers. First support below that pocket come sin from 453-454 1/2. It goes without saying, but outside markets and broader commodity flows continue to have a large weighting in grain price action, so continue watching those outside markets for near term clues on corn direction.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 476**, 487 1/4-488****
Pivot: 461-464 3/4
Support: 453-454 1/2***, 445-447 3/4***, 331 1/2-443 3/4**

Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of a whopping 65,477 Futures contracts, keep in mind that is only through last Tuesday. The bulk of the buying continued to lean heavy on short covering. Broken down, that was 46,233 of short covering and 19,244 of new longs.

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for December corn over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.