Grain markets are relatively quiet this morning following this morning’s weekly export sales report.
- Export sales snapshot: Net sales of 753,300 MT (29,656,102 bushels) for 2023/2024. Within the range of expectations but below last week’s 949,747 metric tons.
Not a whole lot of new news to report with regards to the corn technicals. So far, the Bulls have been able to defend our 4-star support pocket from 472-476. A break and close below there could accelerate the selling pressure. The Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above 489-491 to encourage further technical momentum. Until then, we believe this is an environment filled with short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market.
Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****
Support: 472-476****, 460-464 1/2**
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn. The 5-year seasonal average (red line in chart below) suggests that the recent consolidation could start to turn into a market bottom. Longer term moving averages on the other hand suggest more weakness in the back half of September.
- Export sales snapshot: Net sales of 703,900 MT for 2023/2024 (25,863,890 bushels) for 2023/2024. Within the range of expectations but below last week’s 949,747 metric tons. This was towards the lower end of expectations and well below the 1,783,106 we saw last week.
- The U.S. soybean crush in August likely increased from the same month last year, although scattered seasonal maintenance downtime continued to limit the processing pace, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Friday.NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 167.802 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts.If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the 173.303 million bushels processed in July but up 1.4% from the August 2022 crush of 165.538 million bushels. It would also be the second-largest August crush on record, behind only 2019, when NOPA members processed 168.085 million bushels.The estimate implies a daily crush rate of 5.593 million bushels, which would be up slightly from 5.590 million bushels a day in July.The crush is typically near its lowest point of the year in August as processors idle plants for seasonal maintenance ahead of the autumn harvest and as supplies of soybeans from the prior season’s harvest are drawn down.Estimates for the August 2023 crush ranged from 161.280 million to 171.000 million bushels, with a median of 167.968 million bushels.The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Friday. NOPA issues crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day. -Reuters
The market broke lower yesterday but found support just about a penny above our 3-star support pocket, that took prices back to our pivot pocket by the close. The Bulls need to see a close back above 1350-1355 to negate and neutralize the bearish breakdown we saw on Tuesday.
Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**
Support: 1330-1332 1/2***
Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans. Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.
- Weekly Export Sales Snapshot: Net sales of 437,900 MT (16,090,066 bushels) for 2023/2024 were up 18 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within the range of expectations and about 70,000 metric tons more than last week.
December Chicago wheat futures used Tuesday’s reversal as fuel to continue the rally in yesterday’s trade. That took prices right back to our pivot pocket from 595-599 1/2. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket we could see a continuation of the rally. With the next upside targets coming in near 615 and then 645.
Resistance: 612-616****, 643 1/2-646 1/4****
Pivot: 595-599 1/2
Support: 585-587, 507**
Below is a look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat. We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies). Will that play out again this year? TBD.