Grain Markets Trade Sideways

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grain markets are relatively quiet this morning following this morning’s weekly export sales report.

Corn

News

  • Export sales snapshot: Net sales of 753,300 MT (29,656,102 bushels) for 2023/2024.  Within the range of expectations but below last week’s 949,747 metric tons.

Technicals (December)

Not a whole lot of new news to report with regards to the corn technicals.  So far, the Bulls have been able to defend our 4-star support pocket from 472-476.  A break and close below there could accelerate the selling pressure.  The Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above 489-491 to encourage further technical momentum.  Until then, we believe this is an environment filled with short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 497 1/2**, 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****

Pivot:  489-491

Support:  472-476****, 460-464 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December corn.  The 5-year seasonal average (red line in chart below) suggests that the recent consolidation could start to turn into a market bottom.  Longer term moving averages on the other hand suggest more weakness in the back half of September.

Soybeans

News

  • Export sales snapshot:  Net sales of 703,900 MT for 2023/2024 (25,863,890 bushels) for 2023/2024.  Within the range of expectations but below last week’s 949,747 metric tons.  This was towards the lower end of expectations and well below the 1,783,106 we saw last week.  
  • The U.S. soybean crush in August likely increased from the same month last year, although scattered seasonal maintenance downtime continued to limit the processing pace, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Friday.NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed 167.802 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts.If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the 173.303 million bushels processed in July but up 1.4% from the August 2022 crush of 165.538 million bushels. It would also be the second-largest August crush on record, behind only 2019, when NOPA members processed 168.085 million bushels.The estimate implies a daily crush rate of 5.593 million bushels, which would be up slightly from 5.590 million bushels a day in July.The crush is typically near its lowest point of the year in August as processors idle plants for seasonal maintenance ahead of the autumn harvest and as supplies of soybeans from the prior season’s harvest are drawn down.Estimates for the August 2023 crush ranged from 161.280 million to 171.000 million bushels, with a median of 167.968 million bushels.The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Friday. NOPA issues crush data on the 15th of each month, or the next business day. -Reuters

Technicals (November)

The market broke lower yesterday but found support just about a penny above our 3-star support pocket, that took prices back to our pivot pocket by the close.  The Bulls need to see a close back above 1350-1355 to negate and neutralize the bearish breakdown we saw on Tuesday.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 1373-1381***, 1390 1/2-1392**

Pivot: 1350-1355

Support: 1330-1332 1/2***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for November soybeans.  Seasonal tendencies have shown weakness through the back half of September for the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages, illustrated in the chart below.

Wheat

News

  • Weekly Export Sales Snapshot: Net sales of 437,900 MT (16,090,066 bushels) for 2023/2024 were up 18 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  This was within the range of expectations and about 70,000 metric tons more than last week.

Technicals (December)

December Chicago wheat futures used Tuesday’s reversal as fuel to continue the rally in yesterday’s trade.  That took prices right back to our pivot pocket from 595-599 1/2.  If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket we could see a continuation of the rally.  With the next upside targets coming in near 615 and then 645.  

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 612-616****, 643 1/2-646 1/4****

Pivot: 595-599 1/2 

Support: 585-587, 507**

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at seasonal averages for December Chicago wheat.  We are inching closer to a seasonal low (based on historical tendencies).  Will that play out again this year? TBD.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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