This is your path to managing risk amid today’s data dump, covering the E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver.
- Breaking: the ECB surprisingly hiked rates by 25bps. However, the bank signals this could be the end of policy hikes. The story is developing and will lead into ECB President Lagarde’s press conference at 7:45 am CT.
- U.S. PPI data is due at 7:30 am CT. Producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. After a stretch of disinflation, three months within the year’s first half, headline data for July data rose by +0.3% m/m, and today’s August read is expected +0.4% m/m.
- Retail Sales and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims are also due at 7:30 am CT.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4517.50, up 3.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,552.25, up 52.25
The sideways consolidation is within the eye of the beholder. A bear could say E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are building out a head and shoulders topping pattern, whereas a bull could say the indices are building out the handle of a shallow cup and handle pattern (bullish). We have said time and time again that a perfect pattern matters less than the market profile created, trapping longs at high levels and shorts at low levels. Furthermore, the consolidation across both indices is above the 21-dma as support and at and below the 54-dma as resistance. This builds into today’s data, tomorrow’s quad witching, and next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4539.50- 4543.50***, 4552-4553.75****, 4568.25-4575.50***, 4597.50***
Pivot: 4530.25-4532.50
Support: 4522-4523.75**, 4514.50-4517.50***, 4503-4507.50***, 4495-4498**, 4483.75***, 4472.25**, 4463-4465.75***,
NQ (Dec)
Resistance: 15,615-15,658**, 15,701-15,732****, 15,808-15,855**, 15,916-16,018****
Pivot: 15,552-15,575
Support: 15,483-15,508***, 15,449-15,455**, 15,406*, 15,323-15,354***, 15,198**, 15,139**
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 88.52, down 0.32
Yesterday’s EIA data was headline bearish, with +3.954 mb of Crude and products combining for +9.49 mb. However, due to the storms, Net Exports were down 12.894 mb w/w, which explains the large surprise build. As price action moves north, major three-star support floors are being built in the rearview mirror, with the latest aligning previous resistance, yesterday’s settlement, and today’s session low at 88.52-88.84. The next wave of resistance was 89.14. This now aligns with our momentum indicator to create our Pivot and point of balance; the bulls are in the driver’s seat while above here, though a break below would begin to exude some near-term exhaustion.
Bias: Bullish
Resistance: 90.52**, 92.61-92.64***, 94.47-95.40****
Pivot: 89.05-89.14
Support: 88.52-88.84***, 87.95-88.09***, 87.29-87.51***, 86.83**, 86.15-86.41***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1932.5, down 2.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.181, down 0.221
As Gold futures grind into the August 23rd low and the surrounding range, Silver futures have become unglued, breaking below $23. This comes in a week when the Chinese Yuan has gained 1.15% against the U.S. Dollar. To make matters worse, this weakness comes with the Treasury complex trading on a kinfe’s edge and the U.S. Dollar Index on the verge of a breakout. If each of those asset classes broke down and broke out, respectively, there would be fresh headwinds for Gold and Silver.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1937.2-1941.7**, 1947.2**, 1954.2-1954.8***
Pivot: 1932.5
Support: 1926-1931****, 1913.6-1916.2***, 1900***
Silver (December)
Resistance: 23.18-23.26***, 22.34**, 23.45**, 23.65-23.76***
Pivot: 23.04-23.08***
Support: 22.66-22.85***, 22.58**, 22.30***