A rebound in the Treasury complex fueled by Nonfarm Payrolls and Geopolitics has brought a tailwind to the risk-environment but can E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures) hold it through a deluge of inflation data?
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4391.50, up 22.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,270.75, up 83.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures each surged into and even out above a significant pocket of resistance early in yesterday’s session before incurring a heavy wave of selling. Most importantly, the heavy wave of selling held decisively out above the opening bell range, allowing each index a constructive consolidation path. While the first half of the week was driven by geopolitics, which will certainly still play a role, the back half of the week will be highlighted by inflation data. Although geopolitics did help lift the Treasury complex, lower yields, which helped carry Friday’s risk-on environment into this week, hot inflation data could quickly erode that narrative. Each the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ have two major three-star levels of support that must hold in order to keep this week’s momentum intact. Furthermore, continued price action at and above our Pivot and point of balance, which for the E-mini S&P is that rare major four-star level, will help feed higher prices.
Resistance: 4415.25-4418.50**, 4432-4434.50**, 4439.75-4447***
Support: 4384.50-4489.25***, 4368-4371.25***, 4361-4362.25**, 4356.50-4358.50**, 4337-4341.50***, 4323*, 4316-4319***
Resistance: 15,350-15,392***, 15,435**
Support: 15,227-15,250***, 15,157-15,192***, 15,104-15,112**, 15,060**, 14,949-14,985****
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.97, down 0.41
Crude Oil futures continue to consolidate within the Sunday opening range, and as we noted here yesterday, this is constructive. However, a lower higher yesterday has allowed the bears to violate first key support this morning and create a decisive test into major three-star support. A hold of 84.67-84.89 will be seen as very constructive and open the door for a steady rebound. However, a break could open the door for a test of unchanged on the week into major three-star support at 82.79-82.98. The weekly EIA data is delayed until tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday.
Resistance: 86.31-86.51**, 86.74-86.96***, 87.24**, 88.05-88.37***
Support: 85.30-85.39**, 84.67-84.89***, 83.28-83.63***, 82.79-82.98***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1875.3, up 11.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.953, up 0.029
Gold and Silver have extended the week’s range, finding fuel from a higher Treasury complex and a bull-flag-like consolidation through the first two days of the week. Remember, a bull-flag (or bear-flag) does not have to be perfect, we believe in the market profile created, constructively trapping shorts at lower levels (or longs at higher levels). The extension is constructive, but each is testing into major three-star resistance aligning with the overhead supply; Gold and Silver face the post-Fed bludgeoning and there is tremendous damage to work through. Furthermore, traders must stay nimble into a deluge of inflation data that will certainly drive prices across Treasuries and currencies.
Resistance: 1886.9-1888.7***, 1894.8-1896.7****
Support: 1975.1-1975.3** 1869.5-1971.7**, 1857.5**, 1849-1851.8***, 1844.6-1846.8***
Resistance: 22.30***, 22.49-22.64***
Support: 21.95**, 21.65-21.78***, 21.40*, 21.09-21.14***, 20.85-20.94***, 20.50****