Good morning. It’s Friday, November 17, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are higher after yesterday’s breakout rally. Summer gold’s up $5.19 92. Summer silver is up $0.15 2408. Silver copper unchanged at 3.70 and January. Platinum up $7 at 909. So fresh signs of an economic slowdown are pulling interest rate cut expectations forward. The CME Fed watch tool is already pricing in the first interest rate cut as early as May.
That’s really what the bottom in this precious spell just recently here has been contributed to. So you saw everything from CPI by retail sales. Now an uptick in initial claims. All the factors are happening that could justify the federal Reserve cutting rates rather than raising rates going forward. So really the outlook is, hey, we’ve already pivoted and we’re starting to price in that first interest rate cut.
That’s a tailwind behind the precious metals. Now, yesterday, we did see a massive sell off in crude oil. It was a combination of it was the December crude oil options expiring and also summer crude oil futures rolling over to January. Now, when you do go into these recessions or these soft landings, you do see that demand structure come down just a bit.
Now, inventories have been building. Iran has been producing. Venezuela also has a six month reprieve under sanctions. So they are providing some additional output that wasn’t there. So those are those are the bearish tailwinds that are happening right now. However, crude oil futures, if you look here in the overnight session, you go to January, up 1% here, trading right around $74.
Now, look at it. The structure here on the gold and silver market, they both flipped to a bullish trend. Gold always was a bullish trend here since that latest breakout back in, I call it the October 18th rally. So since then we’ve been pushing up broke out, almost got to new contract highs at 2020 level sold off back to the 50 day moving average 1944.
That’s going to be your critical level support everything from 1950 down to about 1938. That’s where your pocket support lies. If you’re resistance point. We’ve gotten above the 200 day moving average. 1981 trading at 1992 as of this recording. So 2000 is going to be a first level resistance and then 2020 after that, you go to the silver market finally triggered a bullish trade trigger here yesterday.
And now we’ve got a little bit of an extension upwards here today. So you first level support 200 day moving average, 2378 below. That’s going to be $23 down to the 50 day moving average, 2286 and then below that, 2213 your critical level support. So looking at the outside markets, you do have the US equities, they are pushing up here a bit, kind of consolidating at the moment.
Beneath the green markets are a bit lower. You look at ten year treasury yields were trading just about 4.41%. So they’ve been coming down quite a bit in the US dollar index under pressure, down 19 at 10404. If you have any questions, give me a call. 312858733. Remember, futures option trading does involve risk. Loss may not be suitable to investors.
Good luck. Good trading.
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