Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures
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“Maybe even 10%”, maybe even 10%. Do you want to take a stab at that? Yeah. I would not be surprised. I actually think it’s pretty likely we could see record highs before the end of the year. I mean, bravo to the S&P this week. I mean, from my technical math, this is one of the most healthy consolidations over the last couple of days.
I’ve seen in a while after such a massive thrust higher that we saw after CPI and that followed through. I sort of play devil’s advocate because, you know, I’m bullish every knows I’m bullish here, and I think it’s pretty constructive. But where I’m concerned is we’ve seen May from a from a probability standpoint, the CNBC Fed watch tool say that is more than a 50% chance that they cut rates by May.
My fear would be that gets harder to gets priced out and pushed back a little bit. Look at housing starts and building permits today. Those came in a little hotter than expected, although the Treasury market is really unchanged. Yields are off the overnight lows pretty significantly. And so I’m watching the data at the data heats back up a little bit.
You start getting those probability pushed out and that would be a concern here at the rally. Without that, though, I think record highs are in the cards. All right. So, Joe, I mean, Bill brings up a good point, a mistake that the market has made before.
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Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures