Stocks are in positive territory and the Nasdaq leads the way. Interest rate expectations as reflected by the CME Fed Watch tool are pricing in a 30% chance of a cut in March, and a 60% chance of a cut in May.
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Good afternoon, traders. It’s Chris Chavez with blue line futures and at your daily midday market minute we’re seeing the Nasdaq lead stock indices higher here today. But before we get to it, if you’re watching this video like it, subscribe if you’re on our website. There is also a link to direct you to YouTube and you can subscribe that way.
We would love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, we’re seeing stock indices slowly grind higher here today. The Nasdaq is leading, you know, the landscape higher, the broad market higher. And really, when we’re looking at this, I mean, that’s despite Treasury yields. You know, on the higher end today, you know, we’re seeing, you know, bonds catch a nice bid.
You know, Treasuries are catching a nice bid and a headwind is going to be the 20 year bond auction here at 12 Central Standard Time. We can remember, you know, the last 30 year bond auction that we had was not so great. You know, we saw yields really spike off of the weak demand that we got in that bond auction, sending stock indices lower.
So we’ll see how market participants react to the new longer duration Treasury issuance coming to market here today. Now, we do have Michigan data coming out at the end of the week. That’s really going to be an important gauge for the consumer. Many people are starting to finally talk about a slowing consumer and how that could be a potential bullish tailwind for stock indices because, you know, you would see a repricing in interest rate expectations.
Looking at the same Fed watch tool right now, there’s a 30% probability of a cut as soon as March. 60% odds that we are going to see a 25 basis point or more cut in the month of May. So really, I think it’s going to be watching, you know, those deferred months and how, you know, the data is reflected in those months.
As far as the interest rate, I expectations and sentiment is concerned. So again, we have Michigan data coming out later this week. Initial jobless claims, not not a lot of data. You know, it is a holiday week. So we could start to really slow down, maybe see volatility and volume, you know, start to dissipate a little bit this week.
You know, we do have Nvidia earnings tomorrow after the bell, that’s going to be a big head one for tech, obviously. Nvidia reflects a significant weighting in the Nasdaq 100, also the S&P. So that’s going to be an important one for, you know, the environment and sentiment as a whole. And we’re really going to want to watch, you know, these major support resistance levels and for the S&P and for the NASDAQ, you know, major, four star that we’re going to have to clear for the S&P to grind higher at 45, 55, we’re looking at the Nasdaq.
It’s going to be that same level that we’ve hit home on 16, 18 to 1663 and crude oil. We’re starting to see a little bit of a reversal here off of these lows. You’re starting to catch a bit of a bid and it does look like the momentum has potentially shifted. But we’re going to want to watch a break and close above 79, 22, 79, 65.
That’s significant. Three star resistance. Gold is just kind of consolidating here
. Again, yields are in positive territory today. Know it’s going to remain a major headwind. It does start it’s looking like that war premium has kind of gotten baked out of the gold market. Now it’s going to be a bit more dependent on interest rate yields. So 1987 and 3/10 to 1988 and 6/10, that’s going to be a significant level to keep an eye on for the gold market breaking close above there, we’re going to try to retest 2000, and that’s the next level to keep an eye on.
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