Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
AUTO-TRANSCRIBED
“Good morning, it’s Friday, December 22nd, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Overnight, the precious metals are higher after yesterday’s mixed session. You have February gold up $22 at 2073, March silver up 17 C at 2475, March copper unchanged at 391, and January Platinum up four at 975. So, all the precious metals looking really constructive, and also copper holding at the top end of the range.
We do have a big day coming out here today with this core PCE data, that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. It’s expected at 0.2%, and it kind of comes in line with what the Fed’s looking for on this annualized basis. So, it has been trending down, and that reaffirms the possibility that the Fed will cut rates in the next year.
Now, we’re seeing a few other things happen here. We did see Nike, they were down about 11% overnight. It also had a ripple effect on other shoe companies, other sporting goods stores, things like Foot Locker, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Adidas, and other retail-type stocks. So, why that’s important is if you start to see them forecasting slower sales growth, then you’re going to start to see the US equities come down, and it reaffirms kind of that this soft landing towards, hey, we’re coming into this slowdown.
You go across the pond to the UK, their GDP had also contracted, and if they get two contractions in a row, that’s the definition of a recession. That pulls forward when they’re going to cut rates. So, it kind of seems like when the shoe drops on this thing, it’s going to be a race to the bottom with people cutting rates because they’re going to try and prop up their economy.
So, you’re seeing 10-year treasury yields, they’re backing off, making new lows right now, 3.85%. The 30-year kind of anchored right at 4%, and the 2-year note just down one at 4.27.
Other news here, you do have crude oil futures continuing to just grind higher. All the grain markets, they’re also a bit higher. And then we’ll have a lot more data as things go on. You’re going to have durable goods spend, personal spending, you also have new home sales, you have Michigan’s final read on sentiment. So, it’s going to be a day-to-heavy day, and then after all the data comes out, I’d say probably around 10:30, you’re going to see these markets really taper off.
So, if you got yourself in a good position, you want to trim some positions ahead of the holiday weekend here, you know, I would be, that would be somewhat advisable, especially if you’re overextended here because it’ll be a much thinner trading session next week. You expect to see some gyration. Haven’t looked at the data that comes out next week, might not be too much, but then you go into the first of the year, you tend to see this euphoria, this position changing, things like that, people rebalance, etc. So, markets tend to make some explosive moves right in that first week of the year.
So, you guys got any questions, give me a call. I’m back at the home base here. I’ll be here through most of next week as well. You got any questions, give me a call, 312-858-7303. Remember, futures and option trading does involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Good luck and good trading.”
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Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist