Phil Streible with Blue Line Futures discusses Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, and other commodity topics.
Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist
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“Good morning, it’s Tuesday, January 23rd, about 6 a.m. Central Time. Over the precious metals are higher after yesterday’s selloff. You have February gold up two bucks at 2024, March silver up 7 cents 2236, March copper up 1 at 378, and April Platinum up four at 907, hanging on to that 900 level, like to see that a little bit constructive. Got a small swing low going on in the Platinum Market here. So yesterday, we really saw quite a bit of a selloff, and it was just hammering, specifically the silver market. Now, I know what everyone’s going to say. They’re going to say that it’s JP Morgan, the manipulators, they were hammering it, and they were trying to get it down. Okay, it’s only manipulation when it goes down, not when it goes up, right? When it was up a dollar two Fridays ago, that was a manipulation. So that was your opportunity to let some go, so you could buy these dips. But uh, I looked up on the Bloomberg terminal, I scanned around for about an hour last night, really looking for kind of anything out there. And when you do say something like a JP Morgan, or you point the finger specifically at somebody, remember these are custodians that hold funds in enabling trading, just like many of you have Futures Trading accounts with us, have your accounts with different FCMs out there. Those FCMs are the ones that hold your positions and report your positions. They don’t report that Joe Schmo is short, they just say that the FCM is short. And managed money has reached a 10-week low on Silver, so people are just liquidating it. There’s just nothing there at the moment to support the prices. The cure for lower prices right now is just lower prices. So you should be welcoming these lower prices if you want to add more positions. So they said that it was really the optimism around things like China providing stimulus, things like the FED doing that first interest rate cut in March, they’re just liquidating the positions because they see these things being continuously pushed out. And then if you look at ETFs, they’re starting to purchase the gold ETF, the Platinum ETF, and the palladium ETF on some signs over there that there is some complacency. And you do have a different mentality between a gold investor and a silver investor. Often times it’s reflected in the gold-silver ratio, which is trading at 90 right now. But they said that they were still liquidating the silver ETF. People could be looking for other opportunities, whether it’s in Bitcoin, whether it’s in the NASDAQ, crude oil Futures, something else. So that’s a bit of my rant when it comes to what I saw here. I don’t like it, so I don’t think I’m sympathizing, but I just try and investigate just like you do. Now, turning a corner, silver is up dramatically off of the lows yesterday, which was right around 2205. And it was because China is announcing a potential rescue package here to stabilize her slumping stock market. And it’s been, you know, the selloff here for China, it’s reaching a five-week low, that’s the CSI 300 index. And I looked at their stock market itself was at a multi-year low. I mean, they could just, you could just come out with negative statistics across the board on it. So what they want to do is about a $279 billion stock buyback. Uh, they’ve also prevented some short selling. I mean, those are all manipulation right there. They’re providing stimulus. What if you’re a short seller and they’re preventing Short Selling? So you know, that’s something out there that I think has turned the copper market up, turn the silver market up here this morning. So looking back at other things here, you had the Bank of Japan, they held their rates steady. People are really looking for any kind of hawkish comments here out there. You look at the volatility when the policy statement came out last night. Market shot up quite big, Market shot down low, and then it stabilized at where we started the session. So nothing real there, they’re holding their interest rate negative 0.1%. I mean, it’s just sad, really, the people in Japan should be buying gold and things like that. Now we do have some weakness in the oil Market overnight, down about 85 cents here. And what I think is going on there is that this Red Sea escalation is continuing. However, the US and Britain are taking these like targeted military strikes in Yemen, but they’re specifically hitting these weapon caches of Houthi Rebel weapons. So if they take out their weapons and they’re unable to continue their bombardment on these shipping vessels that go through. So I think that it kind of, you know, takes things down. Now the Israel-Hamas thing is so isolated that that’s not really going to get things going here today. So back on the silver Market, what a lot of these analysts, and you look at like technical analysts like I look, get all the, you know, charts and things from like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc. And they have their own specific in-house technicians. And they just, they’re just drawing lines and putting different technical analysis on Silver. You want to print off a chart going back to about September 22nd, there’s a low in there where we get down into the teens. And you draw that going up, and you’re going to want to connect that recent low, which is in October 4th, which was the low before the Hamas conflict. And then you see where we’re at right now, that trend line goes there. So that’s where they’re looking for some support. 2188 is where I think we’ll start to see massive short covering, massive buying because all these different analysts are drawing that same line there. And they tend to trade off the same things. Now, there’s a downward trend line when you take those highs from December 4th, and you draw it down to where we’re at right now, that’s your resistance point. So if you break out through there, you can see prices get going. So you know, be nimble on this downside, look at, you know, some positioning, have some risk management, but also be aware if that downward trend is breaking out, we’re probably going to shoot higher. So you know, you want to, uh, you always want to try and position ahead of these things happen, not wait for it to specifically happen because I always miss it when I try and do that. One other thing to note, Bitcoin looks like it closed out that Gap. So we’re going to want to see where that thing’s at. And also, we’ll look at Ethereum on some longer-term charts. There are micro and mini contracts on those, which I think are great. They give people an opportunity to get some exposure. You had any questions, this went on about a minute long here. Sorry for the rant on the silver market. I’m as frustrated as you are. So, but uh, love you guys. If you got any questions, give me a call 312 858 7303. Remember, Futures option trading involves risk loss, may not be suitable for all investors. Good luck, good trading.”
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