Grain markets are firm in the early morning trade as they continue to carve out a low. Is the low in or is this just a relief rally?
Corn
Technicals (March)
Corn futures are managing to find their footing here recently, despite a lack of friendly headlines, but on the same hand, perhaps the recent WASDE report was enough to purge the market of new bearish news. 450-452 is the pocket the Bulls want to overcome to spark a more meaningful relief rally. If they can achieve that we could see an extension towards 460-462. A failure at the pivot pocket keeps the Bears in clear control.
Crop Consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged from last week, keeping it at 115 MMT. Well below the USDA’s estimate 127.0 MMT. His corn production estimate for Argentina is at 56 MMT, above the USDA’s estimate of 55.0 MMT.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 460-462***
Pivot: 450-452
Support: 440-441**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money (aka Funds) were net sellers for the third consecutive week, which expands their net short position to a whopping 260,542 futures and options contracts. This is the largest net short position since June of 2020, which grew to just over 300k short positions. In the year prior, 2019, Funds amassed a net short position of nearly 350k contracts. So yes, Funds do have a massive net short position, but they still have room to add with not much of a catalyst to cover (for now).
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybean futures are gravitating towards our pivot pocket from 1230-1235. The Bulls will want to see a clear close above this pocket to spark a bigger recovery rally. The next upside objective would be 1250-1260. To us, that will act as a bit of an inflection point for prices and whether or not the market can breakout above there or it fails could set the tone from now until the prospective plantings report.
Crop Consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged from last week, keeping it at 149 MMT. Well below the USDA’s estimate of 157.0 MMT. His soybean production estimate for Argentina is at 52 MMT, above the USDA’s estimate of 50.00 MMT.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1250-1260***, 1282-1285***
Pivot: 1230-1235
Support: 1200-1203***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Managed Money (Funds) were net sellers of soybeans for the 8th week out of the last 9, putting them net short 78,827 futures and options contracts. This is the largest net short position since 2020. In 2019, they grew their net short position to about 171k contracts. So as mentioned with corn, Funds are very short, but it’s far from a record short.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March wheat futures are attempting to chew through a wall of resistance, which we’ve defined as our pivot pocket from 595 3/4-600. If the Bulls can get over that wall, we would think it could cause additional momentum to the upside with the objective being our 4-star resistance pocket, 618-622.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 608 1/2-611***, 618-622****
Pivot: 595 3/4-600
Support: 582-5845**, 570-573 1/2***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money being net sellers, expanding their net short position to 68,575 futures/options contracts.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures