All Eyes on Today’s USDA Report

Grain Express Research Posts

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Grain markets are quiet in the early morning trade as traders gear up for today’s USDA report.

USDA Report Estimates

Corn

Technicals (March)

Corn futures were fractionally lower in the early morning trade but traded back to fractionally higher following CONABs crop report which showed another a drop in production estimates.   Of course, we also have a USDA report out this morning that will have an impact on today’s price action.  The Bulls want to get back on the shelf that they fell off of yesterday, that comes in above 435.  That’s just step one, they have plenty of work left to do to actually turn the tide, which would be a close out above 450-453 1/4. 

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 440-441**, 450-453 1/4****

Pivot: 435-436 1/2  

Support: 425**

Fundamental Notes

Brazil Crop Estimates

Conab estimates the Brazilian corn crop at 113.7 mmt, down from the 117.6 in January’s report.  In January the USDA estimated the crop to be 127.0.  The average analyst estimate for today’s report comes in at 124.8.  

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of 1,219,300 MT for 2023/2024 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  This was towards the upper end of expectations.

Seasonal Tendencies

(updated on Mondays)

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Fund Positioning

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds expanded their net short position for the fifth consecutive week, growing it to 280,151 futures/options contracts.  The largest net short position since June 9th, 2020.  In the year prior (April 16th, 2019) we saw Funds as short as 307,529 contracts. 

Soybeans

Technicals (March)

Technically speaking, I think you could really make the case for 40 cents in either direction from this pivot pocket near $12.00.  A lot of that may be hinging on today’s USDA report.  If recent lows are taken out, that gives way to the May/June lows from 1145-1157.  On the upside1230-1235 is our 3-star resistance pocket.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance:  1221-1223**, 1230-1235*** 1250-1260****

Pivot: 1198-1203 

Support: 1175-1176**, 1145-1157****

Fundamental Notes

Brazil Crop Estimates

Conab estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 149.4 mmt, down from the 155.3 in January’s report.  In January the USDA estimated the crop to be 177.0.  The average analyst estimate for today’s report comes in at 153.7.  

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of 340,800 MT for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  This was below the low end of expectations.

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.  

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers for the 11th straight week, expanding their net short position to 108,247 futures/options contracts.  This is the largest net short position since December 10th, 2019 which stood at 112,528 contracts.  Earlier in 2019 Funds were as short as 168,835 futures/options contracts.

Wheat

Technicals (March)

Wheat futures continue to look very indecisive here in our pivot pocket from 595 3/4-600.  Support to the downside remains intact from 573-578.  Resistance on the upside also remains intact, that comes in from 608 1/2-611. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:  608 1/2-611**, 618-622**** 

Pivot: 595 3/4-600 

Support:  573-578***

Fundamental Notes

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of 378,400 MT for 2023/2024 were up 17 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  This was within the range of expectations.

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday. 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position.  Funds are seen to be net short about 65k futures/options contracts, only about 300 more contracts than last week. 

Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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