Are Record Highs in Sight for Gold?

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How Fed Policy can Propel Metals Higher in 2024.

Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures

Gold futures entered 2024 with a bang, trading to a historic record high in December. Helping to underpin its strength was a heightened geopolitical landscape and an anticipated shift in Federal Reserve policy. Focusing on the latter, CME Group Fed Fund futures priced in as many as seven potential interest rate cuts in 2024, helping Gold to trade higher in eight of the last twelve sessions of 2023. 

With such lofty expectations, many traders and investors were left disappointed with Gold’s activity in January, typically a seasonally bullish month for the precious metal. Weighing on the enthusiasm was the Federal Reserve, which tried to pour cold water over rate cut expectations. Fed Chair Powell further attempted to do so at the January 31st policy meeting, saying he did not see a March cut as the base case.  

In the meeting’s aftermath, expectations for a rate cut in March, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, went as low as 30%. However, a 25-basis point cut by the May 1st meeting are holding above 90%. Whether that cut comes in March or May, it is good news for Gold as it has averaged a rise of 6% within 30 days of the first Federal Reserve rate cut. Therefore, it is just patience and risk management that matter most until then. 


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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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