Cattle Futures Catch Their Breath

Livestock Round Up Research Posts

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Live cattle futures have had a strong start to the year but have been consolidating over the last three sessions. Are we endearing the top or is the market just catching it’s breath?

Live Cattle

Technicals (April- J)

April live cattle futures bumped their head up against last week’s highs and couldn’t get much more going which may have led to a light round of profit taking to start the week.  If the profit taking continues into today’s trade we will be looking for our pivot pocket to hold from 184.65-185.00.  This pocket represents previously important price points along with trendline support.  A break and close below this pocket could spur additional short term technical weakness. 

Yesterday’s daily livestock summary showed the 5-area average price for live steers at 181.15, firm from previous reports.   daily slaughter was reported at 115k head.

Resistance:  187.30-187.55***

Pivot: 184.65-185.00 

Support: 182.60-183.45**, 180.50-181.45***

Seasonal Tendencies

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). 

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net buyers of nearly 10k contracts in the most recent Commitment of Traders report, marking the third straight week of buying which has expanded their net long position to 36,088 contracts.  Historically this would be viewed as a neutral position.

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (March – H)

March feeder cattle futures continued to climb higher yesterday, working into our first resistance pocket from 248.25-249.025.  The steady grind higher takes us closer to the breakdown point from October 19th, which comes in closer to 253.10.  This would likely act as stiff resistance on the first test.

Resistance:  248.25-249.025***, 253.10**

Pivot:  244.00-245.00 

Support: 242.12-242.35***, 237.57-238.92***

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. 

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

(updated on Mondays)

Funds were net buyers of feeder cattle for the sixth consecutive week, which has taken them from net short to net long 5,641 futures/options contracts.  

Lean Hogs

Technicals (April- J)

April lean hogs traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, settling darn close to unchanged as well.  Support remains intact from 79.425-80.00.  A break and close below that pocket could spark additional selling pressure with the next line in the sand coming in at 77.25.  On the resistance side, our pivot pocket from 82.67-82.80 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get back out above. 

Resistance: 83.60-84.00***, 85.50-86.05****

Pivot:  82.67-82.80 

Support: 79.425-80.00***, 77.25**

Seasonal Tendencies 

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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