Managing Markets’ Reaction to CPI

Morning Express Research Posts

/ by BlueLineFutures | 1 Comment on Managing Markets’ Reaction to CPI

Actionable ideas for E-mini S&P, E-mini NQ, Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver (futures).

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U.S. CPI for January is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for:

  • Core CPI +0.3% m/m, unchanged from December, and +3.7% y/y, down from 3.9%.
  • Headline CPI at +0.2% m/m, down from +0.3% in December, and +2.9% y/y, down from +3.4% and the first two-handle since March 2021. 

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5041.25, down 2.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,965.00, down 74.25

CPI is front and center. Although the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ remain in a steady uptrend, we cannot ignore yesterday’s exuberance and reversal. While indices traded higher early, the VIX began an ascent to finish +7.89% on the session. Is this a sign of things to come or another divergence to be shaken off? Ultimately, a pullback, profit-taking, or healthy consolidation, whatever you’d like to call it, is very acceptable given the S&P’s +6% year-to-date and psychological achievement of 5000. As always, upon such a pullback, we will look to a constructive response to listed supports.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 5040.25-5044***, 5057.50**, 5063.75-5066.50***, 5091.75***

Pivot: 5033.25

Support: 5016.25-5019.25***, 5005-5008**, 4996.25-4999.25**, 4988-4990***, 4974.75-4978.25***, 4961.25-4964.25**, 4955-4857.25**, 4941.50-4942.75**, 3937.75**, 4929-4931.75***

NQ (March)

Resistance: 17,936-17,972**, 18,007-18,040***, 18,066-18,071**, 18,109-18,122**, 18,366***

Pivot: 17,867-17,875

Support: 17,777-17,808***, 17,718**, 16,660-17,671***, 17,598**, 17,554-17,565***, 17,436-17,484****

Crude Oil (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 77.42, up 0.50

March Crude Oil futures have reached the highest level since January 31st, ahead of the OPEC meeting and as geopolitics remain at the forefront. After Thursday’s rally, yesterday’s early wiggle will help define a floor out above major three-star support at 75.08-75.14, with overhead resistance aligning with the late January rounded topping.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 78.01-78.11**, 79.29-79.65****

Pivot: 77.42-77.48

Support: 76.83-76.98**, 76.50*, 75.54-75.82**, 75.08-75.14***, 74.52-74.62**, 74.16-74.22**, 73.38-73.56***, 72.57-72.76***

Gold (April) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2033.0, down 5.7

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.767, down 0.173

Gold and Silver futures have continued to whipsaw out above support dating back to November. On a positive note, the response to support is crucial, however, negatively, a streak of lower highs continues to bring tremendous headwind. Silver has certainly started the week with added buoyancy, but a close above resistance at 23.23-23.36 and 23.45 is truly needed to invite added buying. As for Gold, we view a close above major three-star support at 2051.7-2054.3 as extremely constructive. To the downside, new closing lows are likely to feed on themselves.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 2040.2-2041.8**, 2045.5**, 2051.7-2054.3***, 2059.1-2061.3***, 2067.4-2071.42***

Pivot: 2035

Support: 2030.8-2031.8***, 2023.3-2026***, 2012.5-2016.7***, 2007.4**

Silver (March)

Resistance: 23.02**, 23.09-23.15**, 23.23-23.36***, 23.45***

Pivot: 22.85-22.90

Support: 22.75-22.79**, 22.57-22.63**, 22.42-22.49**, 22.30-22.33**, 22.19-22.22**, 22.04-22.05***, 21.75***, 21.26-21.33***

Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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