Corn futures were able to notch their first positive close of the month in yesterday’s trade and are attempting to firm in today’s trade. Are we nearing a market low?
Corn
Technicals (March)
March corn futures made new contract lows early in yesterday’s trade but were able to stabilize and finish the day in positive territory, notching the first daily gain of the MONTH! Some of that optimism may have spilled into the overnight and early morning trade as prices attempt to firm once again. Previous support from 435-436 1/2 will continue to act as our first line of resistance. If the Bulls can chew through that pocket, we could see that trigger technical short covering (not to be confused with calling for a long-term low in the market).
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 440-441**, 450-453 1/4****
Pivot: 435-436 1/2
Support: 425**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 880,074 MT (34,646,973 bushels), within the range of expectations. Up from 645,494 Last week and 563,448 last year.
- Brazil’s 2023/24 second-corn production projection was raised by nearly 5 million metric tons to 91.2 million tons from 86.3 million tons, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, citing evidence of farmers planting an area larger than initially estimated. -Reuters
- The 100th USDA Outlook Forum starts on Thursday. Data will include seeding estimates, ending stocks and more. Many analysts see corn seedings coming in from 91-92 million acres.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the sixth consecutive week, expanding their net short position to 297,744 futures and options contracts. This is the largest net short position since the spring of 2019, when they accumulated a net short position to the tune of 322,215 contracts.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
March soybean futures have been able to consolidate over the last week as it appears the market has found buyers near 1180. With that said, there has also been selling present in our pivot pocket from 1198-1205 1/2. A breakdown or breakout from these levels could be enough to spur a bigger directional move, which way that goes is anyone’s guess as we could see the argument for 30 cents in either direction from these levels.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1221-1223**, 1230-1235*** 1250-1260****
Pivot: 1198-1205 1/2
Support: 1175-1176**, 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 1,326,243 MT (48,731,074 bushels), this was within the range of expectations. Down from 1,750,621 last week and 1,693,288 last year. Last week’s inspections were reported at 1,426,472 metric tons.
- Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean harvest hit 23% of planted area as of last Thursday, compared to 17% in the same period a year earlier. -Reuters
- The 100th USDA Outlook Forum starts on Thursday. Data will include seeding estimates, ending stocks and more. Many analysts see soybean seedings coming in from 85-87 million acres.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of soybeans for the 12th consecutive week, growing their net short position to 130,300 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 174,668 shorts versus 44,368 longs. This is the largest net short position since 2019 when the amassed a record net short position of 168,835 contracts.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
It’s more of the same for wheat as we see wide ranges from day to day, only to really see the chart go sideways, similar to an EKG test. The consolidation could be building up energy for a bigger directional move as the wedge continues to narrow. For the Bulls to capitalize on this they want to see a close out above 608 1/2-611. On the flipside, the Bears want to see a close below 583-585.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 608 1/2-611**, 618-622****
Pivot: 595 3/4-600
Support: 583-585**, 573-578***
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export inspections were reported at 407,476 MT (14,972,175 bushels), this was within the range of expectations. Up from 295,540 last week, but down from 472,327 last year.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed little change in the Managed Money net position. Funds are seen to be net short about 67k futures/options contracts.
Oliver Sloup, VP & Co-Founder, Blue Line Futures