Cattle futures were choppy in yesterday’s trade as traders and hedgers gear up for the monthly Cattle on Feed report, due out after the close.
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April live cattle futures made new highs for the move but reversed sharply midday as traders looked to tie up loose ends ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to catch it’s breath at these levels, ahead of a highly anticipated report.
This morning’s export sales report showed net sales of beef at 12,600 MT for 2024 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Estimates for the report
On feed: 100.1%
Placements: 87.3%
Marketings: 99.8%
Resistance: 187.30-188.05, 189.10-190.275
Pivot: 184.65-185.00
Support: 182.60-183.45, 180.50-181.45*
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net buyers for the fourth consecutive week, extending their net long position to 42,472 futures and options contracts. This is still well below what we saw in the Fall, but this would historically be a pretty neutral position.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
Like live cattle, March feeder cattle made new highs for the move but reversed midday on profit taking ahead of this afternoon’s report. Unlike live cattle, feeder cattle were still able to hold onto gains into the close. The RSI remains in overbought territory which could lead to some consolidation and potentially profit taking in today’s trade. I’d also keep in mind that Feeders have been a big beneficiary of a bloodbath in the grain markets, if the grains ever rally again, that could put a headwind in prices.
Resistance: 253.10-253.45**, 258.00-258.675**
Pivot: 248.25-249.025
Support: 242.12-242.35***, 237.57-238.92***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds expanded their net long position in feeder cattle to 7,346 futures and options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hogs had a sharp move higher yesterday, testing the June highs but falling short. The recent rally has taken the RSI back into overbought territory. Previous resistance from 85.50-86.05 will act as the pivot pocket in today’s trade. The Bulls have the advantage so long as they can defend this, a break and close below and we could see a retracement back to trendline support near 84.00. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of pork at 28,900 MT for 2024 were down 14 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 89.00-89.05**
Pivot: 85.50-86.05
Support: 83.60-84.00***, 82.67-82.80***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall.
