It’s beginning to feel a lot like Groundhog Day as grains continue to bleed lower following another disappointing weekly export sales report. Is there any hope?
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Corn
Technicals (March)
It’s starting to feel a lot like Groundhog Day as it feels like we’ve been saying “corn futures continued to bleed lower in yesterday’s trade”, more often than we would like over the last three weeks. Unfortunately, there still isn’t a whole lot of good news out there, but potentially we could see some light at the end of the tunnel once we get passed options expiration (today), first notice day (next week), and the crop insurance pricing period. Starting next week we will be focusing the daily commentary on May contracts.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 422-425** 435-436 1/2***
Pivot: 415-416
Support: 398-402**
Fundamental Notes
Weekly export sales were reported at 820,400 MT for 2023/2024, down 37 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within expectations but down from last week’s 1,306,889 MT.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of corn for the seventh consecutive week, expanding their net short position to a whopping 314,341 futures and options contracts. This is inching closer and closer to the record short position of 322,215 contracts, set in April of 2019.
Soybeans
Technicals (March)
Mach soybean futures are hanging on the May 31st low by a thread which comes in at 1145 1/4. With options expiration today, our focus in the daily commentary will be shifting to the May contract in next week’s reports. The May 31st low for May soybeans is 1150 3/4. Below that and we are officially in uncharted territory. As mentioned with corn: unfortunately, there still isn’t a whole lot of good news out there, but potentially we could see some light at the end of the tunnel once we get passed options expiration (today), first notice day (next week), and the crop insurance pricing period. Starting next week we will be focusing the daily commentary on May contracts.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1221-1223**, 1230-1235
Pivot: 1175-1176
Support: 1145-1157****
Fundamental Notes
Weekly export sales were reported at 55,900 MT for 2023/2024–a marketing-year low–down 84 percent from the previous and from the prior 4-week average. This was well below expectations and well below last week’s disappointing 353,775 MT.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers yet again, extending the streak to 13 consecutive weeks, a new record. They are now net short 134,500 futures and options contracts, the fifth largest net short on record.
Wheat
Technicals (March)
March wheat futures traded up to our 3-star resistance pocket right out of the gate yesterday morning but fell as flat as a basketball in the dead of winter to finish the day back near unchanged. The market is attempting to firm in the early morning trade, but Bulls are likely skeptical as the overnight strength has been used as an opportunity for sellers in recent trading sessions.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 595 3/4-600*, 608 1/2-611
Pivot: 573-578
Support: 555-558****
Fundamental Notes
Weekly export sales were reported at 233,500 MT for 2023/2024, down 33 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was below expectations and down from last week’s 349,286 MT.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for March Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Managed Money continue to seem fairly comfortable with their position in wheat as there is yet again little change from the previous week. Funds are net short about 56k contracts, which as you can see from the chart below is fairly steady with where they’ve been for the better part of the last two months.
