Cattle futures had an impressive start to the week but were unable to find any follow through in Tuesday’s trade. Will sideways be the trend into Friday’s Cattle on Feed report?
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures had a great start to the week but were unable to find any follow-through at the upper end of the recent range. With the market mostly rangebound, many of the support and resistance levels remain intact, along with our moderately bearish bias.
Yesterday’s cutout values were mixed with choice cuts 11 cents lower to 313.22 and select cuts 13 cents higher to 303.18. Daily slaughter was reported at 122k head, inline with last week and slightly below the same day last year.
Resistance: 185.85-186.625*, 189.05
Pivot: 182.20
Support: 179.825-180.625**, 177.10
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 4k futures and options contracts, extending their net long position for the eighth consecutive week, now sitting roughly 63.3k contracts long. Typically, we would view this as a relatively Neutral/Bullish position. This is about half of the length they had when prices peaked last Fall.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
Like live cattle, April feeder cattle had an impressive start to the week but failed to find any follow-through in Tuesday’s trade. The back half of this week’s trade will be important from a technical perspective as we are on the fence in terms of marking another series of lower highs. If lower highs are confirmed and the lower end of the recent range gives way, that could spark a more meaningful correction from what has been an outstanding rally from the start of the year.
Resistance: 256.90** 260.65-260.80***
Pivot: 253.85-254.25
Support: 252.60 253.85, 248.00-249.00*
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of about 1.5k contracts last week, the bulk of which was long liquidation. That shrunk their net long position to 10.3k contracts, which is on the larger side of historical holdings.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hog futures continue to linger near our pivot pocket as the market seems indecisive about which way it wants to go. Upside resistance above our pivot pocket comes in from 89.00-89.05. On the support side, 82.40-82.80 is the pocket to keep an eye on if we close below 85.50.
Resistance: 89.00-89.05**
Pivot: 85.50-86.05
Support: 82.40-82.80****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 63.7k contracts.
