Cattle futures were able to stabilize and gain some ground back in Wednesday’s trade. Will we see more relief ahead of the long weekend?
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures were able to stabilize in yesterday’s trade, following Tuesday’s technical breakdown in the face of several headlines, many of which on their own probably didn’t hold much weight, but all together added up. The Bulls still aren’t in the clear, they want to see a close back above 179.82-180.62 to turn the tides back in their favor. A failure there in the coming sessions could start to turn the sentiment.
Yesterday’s 5-area average came in at 185.47, down sharply from the previous few reports but on smaller headcounts. Cutout was lower with choice cuts down 2.51 to 308.58 and select cuts down 1.83 to 298.43.
This morning’s weekly export sales for beef came in at 12,700 MT for 2024 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 181.95, 185.85-186.625**
Pivot: 179.825-180.625
Support: 175.70-176.40****
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Fund positioning was little changed, holding a net long position of 62,391 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 84,973 longs VS 22,582 shorts.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April feeder cattle futures were able to stabilize and gain some ground back in yesterday’s trade, but the Bulls still have their work cut out for them. 247.15-248.00 will be the near-term inflection point. A failure to get back out above this pocket likely keeps the Bears in control, with the next downside objective near 238-240.
Resistance: 252.60 253.85, 256.90** 260.65-260.80
Pivot: 247.15-248.00
Support: 243.80**, 240.50, 238.50
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 11,453 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
June lean hogs traded on both sides of unchanged, finishing the day near unchanged. From a risk/reward perspective, we like looking at this with a Bearish bias so long as we don’t see a close above 103.00-103.50.
This morning’s weekly export sales report was strong, showing net sales of pork at 55,300 MT for 2024–a marketing-year high–were up 64 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 103.00-103.50****
Pivot: 101.15
Support: 98.60-98.80, 97.42-97.80
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 62,877 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
