Grain markets have traded on both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning trade, these are the levels to keep an eye on in today’s trade.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures took out the lows form last Thursday’s USDA report but were able to recover in yesterday’s trade, setting up for what many technicians refer to as a “bear trap”. Which is basically a false breakdown that prompts shorts to open new positions. If the market can get back out above our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435 we could see a move back to the top end of the recent range. A retest of the top end of the range may be enough to spur a bigger directional move higher. On the flipside, a revisit a close below this week’s low would put the Bears back in the driver’s seat.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 9k contracts (through 3/26/24), that puts their net short position at 251,730.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybeans were lower on Tuesday but were able to stage a reversal to recoup majority of those losses in yesterday’s trade. That action takes prices back near our pivot pocket in the early morning trade, 1187. A move back above here opens the door for a run back north of $12.00. A break and close below support from 1170-1175 would put the Bears back in clear control of the technical landscape.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216
Pivot: 1187
Support: 1170-1175, 1161-1167*
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 13.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 134,780 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
Wheat futures have been able to recover after a rough start to the week. That has brought prices back near trendline resistance. If the market can get out above here and then clear the recent high of 568 1/2 we could see it add a tailwind to prices with the next resistance pocket coming in closer to $6.00. A potential reversal in the USD is also something that could aid higher price action.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 568 1/2-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 12k contracts, expanding their net short position to 92,102 contracts, the largest net short since December 5th.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
