Cattle futures made new lows but seemed to reject them with a strong afternoon trade. Is the low in?
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Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures made new lows but seemed to reject them as support managed to hold intact from 172.90-173.425. The relatively strong late afternoon trade was encouraging but the Bulls are not out of the woods yet, the still want to see a close back above our pivot pocket from 175.70-176.40 to spark more of a relief rally.
Weekly export sales for beef came in at 18,700 MT for 2024 were up 48 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 177.72-178.45,181.725-182.40*
Pivot: 175.70-176.40
Support: 172.90-173.425, 169.00-170.00
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.2k contracts, not a lot, but most of it was from long liquidation. This drops their net long position to 59,164.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
April feeder cattle futures were able to hold the line of support, which we’ve outlined as 238.90-240.275. Yes, that’s an extremely wide support pocket but when intraday ranges expand, so do support and resistance levels. That pocket will continue to be important for the Bulls to defend. On the resistance side, the first hurdle remains our pivot pocket from 243.50-244.00.
Resistance: 247.15-248.00, 250.00-251.00*
Pivot: 243.50-244.00
Support: 238.90-240.275****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 8,193 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
Lean hogs continued to make new highs yesterday, trading as high as 105.725. Despite the impressive 3-day rally, the RSI is still sub-70, which is often the line in the sand for determining if something is overbought.
Weekly export sales came in at 28,700 MT for 2024 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Resistance: 105.75-106.00*
Pivot: 104.50-105.00
Support: 103.00-103.50**, 101.15, 98.60-99.20
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds little changed from the previous week, holding a net long position of 64,951 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
