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Gold and S&P Outlook to Kickoff the Week
Where do we see Gold, the S&P and Fed policy going from here?
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5253.25, up 0.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,295.00, down 5.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were little changed to start the week as traders and investors await tomorrow’s CPI slate. Given last Thursday’s fallout and Friday’s stronger-than-expected headline job creation, one could perceive the consolidation as healthy. While there was some construction within the Treasury complex yesterday, we must also keep a close eye on rates as we move through the data-heavy middle of the week.
Price action in E-mini S&P futures held an early low yesterday after the opening bell, creating first key support at 5245.25-5246.50, while E-mini NQ futures have a similar mark with major three-star support at 18,228-18,249. The bears must test and violate these levels in order to potentially break the consolidation ahead of CPI. To the upside, a move out above second key resistance aligning with Friday’s high at 5268.75-5272.50 in the E-mini S&P and 18,406-18,446 in the E-mini NQ could begin to spark a pre-CPI melt, back into the thick of the damage, where indices began rolling over Thursday.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5264.25*, 5268.75-5272.50, 5279.25-5282, 5295.25-5300.75, 5207-5208.50
Pivot: 5252.50-5253.25
Support: 5245.25-5246.50, 5231.25-5237, 5224.50, 5212.75-5215.50, 5203.75-5206.75, 5191.50-5196.75, 5163.75, 5145-5147.25, 5123.75-5124.25, 5112.25
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,370-18,376, 18,406-18,446, 18,475-18,498**, 18,568-18,607, 18,691-18,709
Pivot: 18,300-18,310
Support: 18,228-18,249, 18,173-18,191, 18,102 18,051-18,070, 18,006-18,029, 17,767-17,881**
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.43, down 0.48
On Friday, geopolitical premium helped the nearby month in Crude Oil futures traded to the highest level since October 23rd, and the May contract hit the highest since June 2022. Price action gapped lower from the 86.91 settlement on the open Sunday night, but strength into the onset of U.S. hours yesterday hit a high of 87.10. The resilience lends optimism, with the session low (Sunday night) holding that of Thursday’s before headlines lifted to new local highs. This newly established floor is now major three-star support at 84.64-84.93 and we see the bulls in the driver’s seat while above here.
The EIA will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT, and API’s private weekly inventory survey is due at 3:30 pm CT.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 86.91-87.10, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64
Pivot: 86.10
Support: 85.39-85.50, 84.64-84.93, 84.04-84.09, 83.71, 83.12-83.25***
Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2351.0, up 5.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 27.807, up 0.304
Gold futures have now set a fresh record high for the eighth straight session. Although Silver is well below its 1980 and 2011 record highs of $50, the underlying strength exuded in recent sessions is certainly nothing to ignore. The first task for Silver is clearing and holding above what has become a psychological barrier at $30. Days like yesterday, where what feels like a precipitous drop is quickly reversed back into positive territory, are likely going to become more of the norm, but with wider ranges, and doing so is an exhibition of such underlying strength. Still, risk management is key and that is why our trade desk is here to help, always feel free to reach out.
Gold is in unchartered territory; therefore, we are using extension levels from multiple historical ranges, and it is trading into a sticky spot redefined by 2366.1-2372.5 as today’s pivot and point of balance and 2380.2-2384.5 as major three-star resistance. With Silver, continued resilience above a new handle (28 versus 27) should pave the way for a test of major three-star resistance at 28.52-28.57 on the session. From there, we brace for tomorrow’s CPI data.
Bias: Bullish
Resistance: 2380.2-2384.5, 2400, 2466.5, 2539.3-2560.1**
Pivot: 2366.1-2372.5
Support: 2348.1-2351, 2344.3-2345.4, 2321.7-2325.3, 2315.7**, 2298.7-2299.6, 2285.7-2286.2, 2279-2281.8
Silver (May)
Resistance: 28.20, 28.52-28.57, 28.71-28.90, 29.22, 29.88-30.35***
Pivot: 27.99-28.01
Support: 27.80-27.87, 27.34-27.51, 26.93-26.97, 26.40-26.48*
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72,110, up 4,355
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600, 74,800-75,300, 80,503, 82,110
Pivot: 71,800
Support: 69,610-69,900, 68,650-68,900, 67,755, 66,330-66,500, 64,715-65,260, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680
Midday Market Minute
Despite weakness in the treasury market, metals remain strong with platinum and palladium catching a noticeable bid. Bitcoin futures are rallying as well, approaching major overhead resistance. Can metals sustain this momentum?