Live cattle futures were able to stabilize in yesterday’s trade, will we see more relief through this week’s trade?
Check out Oliver Sloup on RFD-TV: It’s a quiet start to the week as traders await new news, which may not come until Thursday’s USDA report.
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures were able to find some relief in yesterday’s trade, following a weekend that didn’t offer any new scary headlines. The Bear’s remain in control of the technical landscape, but relief towards 175.70-176.40 is not out of the question in the near term. On the support side, 169.00-170.00 is the pocket for the Bulls to defend through the week.
Resistance: 175.70-176.40, 177.72-178.45
Pivot: 172.90-173.425
Support: 169.00-170.00***
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 6k contracts. This drops their net long position to 53,281.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (April- K)
May feeder cattle futures continued to retreat in yesterday’s trade, albeit at a lower velocity. First support remains intact from 233.50-234.00. For the Bulls to spark a recovery rally, they will want to see a close back above 238.90-240.275.0
Resistance: 243.50-244.00, 246.4-247.00*
Pivot: 238.90-240.275
Support: 233.50-234.00***
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 9,414 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
June lean hogs were weaker in the early morning trade but made new highs for the move as the RSI (relative strength index) pressed further into overbought territory. As mentioned in previous reports, the market has exceeded our expectations and we’d expect a pullback, but hogs can be a very unforgiving market, so position sizing and risk management is important.
Resistance:
Pivot: 105.75-106.00
Support: 103.00-103.50**, 101.15, 98.60-99.20
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 12k contracts, expanding their net long position to 76,928 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
