Grain markets have flatlined to start the week as the lack of new news has kept buyers and sellers at bay. These are the technicals we are watching that could change that.
Tune into Oliver Sloup on RFD-TV yesterday discuss: It’s a quiet start to the week as traders await new news, which may not come until Thursday’s USDA report.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures were able to gain some ground yesterday, but it wasn’t anything that altered the technical landscape. Prices remain near our pivot pocket from 431 1/3-435, which happens to be in the middle of support and resistance. We think corn can grind higher from these levels to retest the top end of the range, but it may be the deferred contracts that have a better chance at doing that as they have a more constructive technical picture.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 8k contracts (through 4/2/24), that puts their net short position at 259,556.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures made an attempt to move higher yesterday but reversed to finish lower and near the low end of the day’s range. That bearish reversal has led to additional weakness in the overnight and early morning trade. Support is coming into play from 1170-1175. If you’re bullish, this is what we view as a MUST HOLD pocket. A break and close below here could reignite selling pressure. Resistance on the upside from 1198-1205 1/2 remains intact.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216
Pivot: 1187
Support: 1170-1175, 1161-1167*
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 138,256 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat failed to take out the previous day’s high in yesterday’s trade and reversed lower, which has spilled into weakness overnight and this morning. Previous trendline resistance will now act as support, with trendline support coming in just under that. 550-555 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend this week to keep the momentum in their favor.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 568 1/2-570, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were basically flat last week. They are net short 91,944 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
