E-mini S&P futures, highlighting the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low aligning with yesterday’s session low.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25, 5214.75-5217, 5223-5226.50, 5030.75, 5241-5244.25, 5260.25, 5272-5274.25, 5280.75-5285, 5295.25-5300.75, 5207-5208.50*
Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75
Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50, 5145-5147.25, 5123.75-5124.25, 5112.25
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,215-18,224, 18,264, 18,313-18,350, 18,405-18,414, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607, 18,691-18,709
Pivot: 18,185
Support: 18,102-18,118* 18,051-18,070, 18,006-18,029, 17,767-17,881**
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98
Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent.
Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.29, 86.58-86.71, 86.91-87.10, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64
Pivot: 86.02
Support: 84.90-85.10, 84.55-84.69, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71, 83.12-83.25
Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2348.4, down 14.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.052, up 0.068
Yesterday’s warm CPI and weak 10-year auction paved the way for a much-needed consolidation day for Gold and Silver. Still, the precious metals complex battled valiantly, exuding bull market trends within the intraday swings. Geopolitical headlines are certainly helping to stave off indiscriminate selling, but we now look to another slate of inflation data via PPI, coupled with an ECB policy decision this morning and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
Silver futures even went as far as setting a new local high after yesterday’s CPI data, but the broad risk-off undertow was just too much. Construction in Silver out above yesterday’s low of 27.64-27.76 and support aligning with Gold’s low of 2340.1-2343.1 should help fuel a bull continuation into the weekend. In the event of further weakness, we have additional levels of significant support highlighted below.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2363.7-2364.1, 2369.4-2371, 2380.2-2384.5, 2400, 2466.5, 2539.3-2560.1*
Pivot: 2355
Support: 2348.1-2351, 2340.1-2343.1, 2334.2-2337.1, 2321.7-2325.3, 2315.7, 2298.7-2299.6, 2285.7-2286.2, 2279-2281.8*
Silver (May)
Resistance: 28.15-28.24, 28.39-28.44, 28.57-28.66, 28.71-28.90, 29.22, 29.88-30.35*
Pivot: 28.05
Support: 27.84-27.90**, 27.64-27.76, 27.34-27.51, 26.93-26.97, 26.40-26.48
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 71,355, 72,110-72,530, 73,410-73,600, 74,800-75,300, 80,503, 82,110
Pivot: 70,355-70,410
Support: 69,990-70,005, 68,540-68,785, 67,75-68,034, 66,330-66,500, 64,715-65,260, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680
Midday Market Minute
Inflation Accelerates and Treasury Yields Spike! Are Interest Rate Cuts off of the Table in 2024?