Cattle futures were under pressure in the first half of the week but were able to stabilize yesterday. Is more relief in play or was yesterday just a dead cat bounce?
Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures were able to stabilize in yesterday’s trade, thanks in part to the outside markets stabilizing following a slew of inflation data over the last two days. We would not be surprised to see the market attempt to consolidate around our pivot pocket near 173, with support and resistance about $3.00 away on each side.
Resistance: 175.70-176.40, 177.72-178.45
Pivot: 172.90-173.425
Support: 169.00-170.00***
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 6k contracts. This drops their net long position to 53,281.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (May- K)
May feeder cattle futures made new lows for the move but were able to recover and finish the day in positive territory. Support remains intact from 233.50-234.00. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended on a closing basis, a break and close below could trigger another wave of selling pressure with little meaningful support until you get closer to 230.00. On the resistance side, the Bulls want to see a close back above our pivot pocket from 238.90-240.275 to spark additional relief from these levels.
Resistance: 243.50-244.00, 246.4-247.00*
Pivot: 238.90-240.275
Support: 233.50-234.00, 231.05
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for May Feeder Cattle (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Historically, this isn’t the best time to get supper bulled up on Feeder Cattle, but time will tell.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds hold a net long position of 9,414 futures/options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (June-M)
June lean hog futures were able to stabilize in yesterday’s trade. A strong weekly export sales number may have helped ease some of the pressure that was seeing in the previous session. With that said, we feel there could be more near-term risk to the downside with our eye on support from 103.00-103.50.
Resistance: 109.175-109.65**
Pivot: 105.75-106.00
Support: 103.00-103.50**, 101.15, 98.60-99.20
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s for June lean hogs (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 12k contracts, expanding their net long position to 76,928 contracts. Looking back at historical holdings, this is on the larger side of things.
