Grain markets were weaker following yesterday’s USDA report but are finding their footing in the early morning trade.
Oliver Sloup shares his take on the price action following yesterday’s USDA report.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures slid lower into the afternoon, following a less than friendly USDA report. Despite the weakness, the technical landscape remains largely the same as it’s been all week. Significant support comes in from 421-422. This is a MUST HOLD pocket for the Bull camp, a break and close below could trigger additional pressure.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2, 447 1/2-450*
Pivot: 431 1/2-435
Support: 421-422***
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 8k contracts (through 4/2/24), that puts their net short position at 259,556.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke lower following the release of yesterday’s USDA report but were able to battle back to limit the downside into the close. That snapback has led to stabilization in the overnight and early morning trade which gives the Bulls some hope. However, they still have their work cut out for them. Previous support is now resistance, the Bulls want to see prices reclaim ground above 1170-1175 to mute the recent bearish price action.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1170-1175, 1198-1205 1/2, 1212 3/4-1216***
Pivot: 1161-1167
Support: 1150, 1128 1/2-1137**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 138,256 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
As you can see from the chart below, Chicago wheat is officially at the “crossroads”. With that said, higher lows are still in play. 550-555 is the pocket we’ve been keeping an eye on all week. The Bulls will want to see this hold into the weekend to keep the ball in their court. A break and close below could cause additional technical selling pressure.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fund Positioning
- Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were basically flat last week. They are net short 91,944 contracts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
- Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year.
