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Gaming Big Tech Earnings and Macro

Bill Baruch expects strong Mag 7 earnings to come, explains why, and discusses what macro headwind he fears could be a Black Swan event.

Make sure to check out Bill Baruch’s quick market recap at the end of each day. It is posted to his Twitter and Instagram, @bill_baruch, and LinkedIn.

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5499.00, up 57.75 on Friday and down 54.75 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,174.50, up 182.25 on Friday and down 538.50 on the week

We are embarking on one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. Earnings announcements from the largest companies surround the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday afternoon. There is only a 4.1% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates at this meeting, but the committee is expected to telegraph a September rate cut. In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a September cut with 100% certainty. As for earnings, according to The Transcript there are 171 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week. Furthermore, four out of the top five or four out of the top six (if you combine GOOG and GOOGL). Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report on Thursday, where he reiterated his confidence in strong big tech earnings that will help alleviate waning confidence and reinvigorate its outperformance.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures again tested a critical area of major three-star resistance at 5528.75-5533.25 and 19,356-19,390 this morning. These pockets of resistance are the first in a wave of thick overhead supply the indices must chew through in order to recoup the July 23rd close, when GOOG and TSLA reported. The July 23rd settlement aligns to create rare major four-star resistance. To the downside, price action associated with a choppy Thursday and Friday trade helps build out supports, most importantly that which aligns with Friday’s weekly settlement; while holding above here, we see the trade most constructive in attempting higher prices.

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish
  • Resistance: 5528.75-5533.25***, 5542.75***, 5551.50-5553.75**, 5572.75-5576.75***, 5599.25-5611****
  • Pivot: 5522.25
  • Support: 5508.50-5509.25**, 5499-5501.75***, 5478.50-5482***, 5470-5472.50**, 5448.25-5453.25***, 5439-5441***, 5432.50**, 5391.25-5398.25***, 5366.50-5370.50****

NQ (September)

  • Resistance: 19,356-19,390***, 19,496-19,501**, 19,654-19,686***, 19,728-19,751**, 19,809-19,828**, 19,925-19,933****
  • Pivot: 19,250
  • Support: 19,159-19,174***, 19,104**, 19,040-19,060**, 18,945-18,992****, 18,883**, 18,727***, 18,645-18,675****, 18,482-18,500***

Crude Oil (September)

Last week’s close: Settled at 77.16, down 1.12 on Friday and 1.48 on the week

WTI Crude Oil futures opened higher Sunday night amid Middle East tensions. A deadly rock strike on Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah has eroded the hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, a firm tape overnight has dissipated, and Crude Oil futures are testing into the gap open and major three-star support at 76.0r-76.40. This support level is one in which price action tested multiple times last week and a higher low today will help build out an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern.

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish
  • Resistance: 77.69-77.81**, 77.98-78.08**, 78.64-78.92***, 79.22**, 79.81***, 80.70***, 81.30***
  • Pivot: 77.25
  • Support: 76.04-76.40****, 75.71-75.87*, 75.08-75.32**, 74.55-74.91***

Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2427.9, up 28.0 on Friday and down 18.9 on the week

Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 28.02, up 0.045 on Friday and down 1.279 on the week

Gold and Silver futures are working back from last week’s beatdown. We believe the continued weakness is a near-term phenomenon and the result of three factors. Weakness is closely correlated to volatility associated with an unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Also, the communist party of China prioritized quality growth over stimulated growth. With China’s economic growth trajectory deteriorating, the country is essentially exporting deflation. Lastly, speculative positioning in Gold became overzealous and a move off record highs created a liquidation event.

December Gold futures are now front month, and strength overnight tested major three-star resistance, aligning with a .382 retracement from last week’s low back to the prior week’s all-time high at 2451.5. We will be looking for balance at 2436.7 in order to hold a constructive session. Silver certainly lagged in its strength Sunday night and continues to struggle against key resistance at 28.28-28.34.

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish
  • Resistance: 2451.5***, 2464-2468***
  • Pivot: 2436.7
  • Support: 2427.9-2430.5***

Silver (Sept)

  • Resistance: 28.28-28.34**, 28.90-29.06****
  • Pivot: 28.10
  • Support: 28.04**, 27.91-27.95**, 27.75**, 27.54**, 27.33-27.40**, 26.61-26.98****

Micro Bitcoin (August)

  • Last week’s close: Settled at 68,775, up 3,385 on Friday and 530 on the week
  • Bias: Bullish/Neutral
  • Resistance: 71,125***
  • Pivot: 69,090
  • Support: 68,775***, 65,390***

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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