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Are Cattle Futures Gearing Up for a Bigger Move?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Cattle futures had an impressive end to the week as prices test the upper of the range that dates back to last Fall’s breakdown. Is there more upside left or will seasonality halt the rally?

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Live Cattle


Technicals (October – V)

October live cattle futures finished the week near its highest levels since last Autumn. The chart looks strong, now doubt about it, but August has historically been a tricky month for futures to extend their rally. Will this year be on trend or more of an outlier? TBD.

Friday afternoon’s daily livestock summary showed cutout values firming up with choice cuts 1.31 higher to 313.77 and select cuts 2.35 higher to 297.46. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 193.13. Friday’s slaughter was reported at 110k head, which put the weekly total at 590k, about 17k less than the same period last year.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds expanding their net long position by about 3.5k contracts, to 61,876 futures/options. Broken down that is 86,844 longs VS 24,968 shorts.

  • Resistance: 190.35-191.00***
  • Pivot: 187.60-188.55
  • Support: 185.77-185.87, 181.725-182.25*

Below: Daily chart of October live cattle

Below: Seasonal Tendencies for October live cattle. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


Feeder Cattle


Technicals (August – Q)
August feeder cattle futures were able to gain some ground at the end of last week, but prices remain stuck in a wedge. Is the market building up energy for a bigger directional move? TBD. As with live cattle, we continue to error on the side of caution when we turn the calendar over into August, which has historically been a tough month for futures to stage meaningful rallies.

  • Resistance: 259.65-260.25, 262.25-263.00*
  • Pivot: 256.125-256.70
  • Support: 253.40-254.35*, 250.80-251.125

Below: Daily chart of August feeder cattle, dating back to November.

Below: Seasonal Tendencies for September feeder cattle. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


Lean Hogs


Technicals (October – V)

October lean hogs have had a nice run in the back half of July but have found resistance from 78.75-79.42. This pocket has been an inflection point for the better part of the last year with it acting as support last Autumn and the eventual breakdown point in June.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds trimming their net short position by about 7k futures and options contracts through 7/23. The Fund net short position is down to 4,430 contracts, broken down that is 54,589 longs VS 59,019 shorts.

  • Resistance: 78.75-79.42, 81.80-82.00*
  • Pivot: 76.50-77.25
  • Support: 74.55-75.00, 72.42-72.475

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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