Corn, soybeans, and wheat were looking good midway through last week’s trade, but that optimism dwindled on Friday with prices for all three grains closing sharply lower, which has carried over into the start of this week’s trade.
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Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures looked like they were on the verge of breakout move above resistance in the middle of last week, but those hopes were crushed (for now) with a big down day on Friday. The weakness we saw in Friday’s trade has spilled over into a softer trade to start the week, taking prices right back to where we were last Monday. Support remains intact from 399-403, a break and close below there would put prices back in in uncharted territory. The Bull camp wants to see a close back above 413-416 1/2 to neutralize Friday’s technical damage.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 12k contracts through July 23rd, the bulk of which was short covering. That trims their net short position to 318,549 futures and options contracts, which is still one of the biggest on record. Broken down that is 158,606 longs VS 477,155 shorts.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 423-426, 430-434**
- Pivot: 413-416 1/2
- Support: 399-403**
Below is a daily chart of December corn futures
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
As with corn, November soybeans were on the verge of a breakout move in the middle of last week’s trade, but ultimately failed on Friday which has spilled into weakness and new lows in the early morning trade. Despite trading roughly 50 cents off Friday’s high, the daily RSI is not yet registering as “oversold”. Minor support near 1025 is still holding this morning, but a failure there and a drop to the psychologically significant $10.00 handle wouldn’t be out of the question. 1046-1050 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get back out above to help repair some of the damage that has taken place over the last two trading sessions.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts through July 23rd, 90% of which was short covering. That shrunk their net short position to 163,659 futures and options contracts. Broken down that is just 59,942 longs VS 223,601 shorts.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 1061 1/2-1062 3/4*, 1085 1/2-1087
- Pivot: 1046-1050
- Support: 1025-1031 3/4, 1000
Below is a daily chart of November soybean futures
Wheat
Technicals (September)
September Chicago wheat futures broke below trendline support on Thursday which spilled into additional pressure on Friday and into the start of this week’s trade. This price action keeps the Bulls in the driver’s seat with little meaningful support until you get closer to the psychologically significant 5.00 level. On the resistance side, our pivot pocket from 525 1/4-530 will be the line in the sand to keep an eye on at the start of the week.
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report was relatively flat from the previous week. As of July 23rd, Funds were holding a net short position to the tune of 75,184 futures/options contracts. Broken down that is 71,579 longs VS 146,763 shorts.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 537-539, 553 1/2-556 1/4
- Pivot: 525 1/4-530
- Support: 500**
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