Trading Opportunities Are Popping Up in the Grain Markets
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Transcript: Good afternoon. This is Oliver Sloup with blue line features. Today is Wednesday, August 14, and that means we are less than a week away from the Pro Farmer crop tour. I’m going to be on the eastern leg of that, which starts in Ohio, goes through Indiana, Illinois into Iowa, and then up to Minnesota. I’ll be sending out my normal daily grain commentary as well as updates throughout my route each and every day. So if you want to stay connected and follow along with what I’m seeing on the eastern side of the tour, head over to Blue Line futures.com you can select this market and research. Drop down select Crop tour 2024 and submit your information. To get that information, starting next Monday. On top of that, we will send you one of these great koozies. I love corn koozie because who doesn’t love corn? I know you all love a cold beverage, but we all love corn too, so sign up there for the crop tour updates, as well as our daily grain market commentary, and, of course, the free koozie. All right, it was a universally higher day in the ag world. For the most part. We’ll start with the corn market and grain markets. We had December corn futures, three and a half cents higher, settling back above that psychologically significant $4 level, right at $4.03 quarters of a cent. November soybean, six cents higher to 968, and a half. And on the wheat side, it was the September Chicago contract up six cents. 534, and three quarters, moving over to the livestock side of things, cattle uniformly higher across the board, as well as lean hogs, we had October live cattle, $1.37
higher to 182, 12. We had September feeder cattle, $2.17
higher to 244, 35 and last but not least, on the snout side, we had October lean hogs, $3.07
higher to 7592
so nice to see green across the screen in those markets. Certainly been a while since we’ve been able to say that for corn, soybeans, wheat, live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. Whether or not there’ll be some follow through is still to be determined, but we are hopeful. A couple of the technical setups that we’re looking at, we referenced this in this morning’s grain express this corn market, we’ve got what is referred to as a falling wedge, which really kind of illustrates the slowdown of the selling velocity here and now we’re bumping up against trend line resistance and the 20 day moving average. If we’re able to chew through that level, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that spur additional short covering and maybe make things a little bit more exciting. How high could we go? I wouldn’t be holding my breath for a whole heck of a lot. But again, we get out above the top end of this. Call it 406 to 410 I think this market could start to work back north, towards the upper end of the range, dating back to the first week of July. That comes in closer to 424, 25 so it’s kind of what we’re looking at for the corn market, a break and close below this trend line support in the recent lows, obviously, that would neutralize that bias, but from a risk reward setup, we feel like there’s opportunity here. And the fundamental backdrop is actually halfway decent. Export Data has been strong. We did have a higher yield in Monday’s. Was he report? But there were some silver linings and the carry out numbers, so certainly something to keep a close eye on here, if we can get some follow through end of the end of the week, the other market that really caught our interest was the wheat market. And wheat has really just been on the struggle bus, as we’ve failed against the upper end of this resistance level multiple times here over the last month or so. And that’s 572 to about 580 for that December Chicago contract, we reference the potential for an inverse head and shoulders in this morning’s grain Express, we were able to come off those lows, which is really what the bulls needed to see. A break in close below yesterday’s lows would have negated this bias. But again, from a risk reward perspective, we feel like there’s value here. And because we are in a downtrend, we like looking to the options market as a way to play for a counter trend reversal back to the upside. Looking out to November options that trade off of the December futures, those have about 72 days left on them, so again, it gives you some exposure to the upside, if that’s what you’re looking for, and some staying power in the market so you don’t get chopped around if we continue to stay in between 550 to 570 here in the futures market. And lastly, I’ll just touch on cattle real quick, because I know that’s been a hot market. If just flying around for a lot of folks, we had the sharp sell off, we’ll go over to feeders here the break and close below trend line. Support really just accelerated the move to the downside. We had a nice recovery today. There’s potentially some more upside potential here in the near term, but we continue to be in the camp that rallies are likely meant to be sold. So if we get back up towards some of these key retracements and.
At levels, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe fizzle out, especially if the outside markets, which retrace a lot of their breakdown points, start to fizzle out as well. So those are a few things we’re looking at here as we enter the back half of the week. If you’ve got any questions at all, don’t hesitate to reach out. You can email me Oliver at Blue lionfutures.com
remember trading futures and options and follow substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. Hi. I’m Oliver Sloup, Vice President and co founder of blue line futures. Join me on my journey for this year’s Pro Farmer crop tour, August, 19 to the 22nd I’ll be on the eastern leg, which starts in Ohio, goes through Indiana, Illinois, into Iowa, and then up to Minnesota. I’ll be sending out my normal daily grain market commentary as well as special updates from my findings on my route throughout each day. Sign up for these updates by filling out the form on this page, and we’ll send you one of the best looking koozies around. And I love corn koozie because who doesn’t love corn. Thank you, and I look forward to you joining me on my journey. Thank You.