Grain futures were uniformly higher in Wednesday’s trade, which has so far spilled over into overnight and early morning strength. Will it last?
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Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures were higher midway through the week which has led to follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade. Whether or not the market is able to hold that strength through today’s trade could prove pivotal for the technical landscape as trendline support and resistance are continuing to converge, also referred to as a falling wedge, which we discussed in yesterday’s video (Watch Now!) The first hurdle for the Bulls to get over comes in from 406 1/4-409. Consecutive closes above this pocket could help propel prices back to the top end of the range from the last month and a half, that comes in from 421 3/4-423 3/4. On the flipside, a failure against first resistance keeps the Bears in the Driver’s seat.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 406 1/4-409, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
Pivot: 400-403
Support: 390 1/4, 380-385
Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as trendline support, both of which are converging to create a falling wedge. The chart also includes the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Notes
- Weekly Export Sales: The weekly export sales report from the USDA will be out at 7:30am CT. Expectations for old crop sales range from 300k-550k metric tons, last week’s report came in at 485,447 MT. The range of estimates for new crop sales is between 150k-800k MT, last week’s report came in at 249,100 MT.
- Ethanol: Wednesday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed production at 1.072 million barrels per day, that’s up 5k bpd from the previous week. Ethanol stocks declined by 413k barrels to 23.354 million.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years. *Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybeans were able to post a higher close yesterday, the first in seven sessions. The market has found some follow-through buying overnight and into the early morning trade, taking prices back to our pivot pocket from 975 1/2-980. This could act as a near term inflection point for the market. A failure here keeps the Bear’s in clear control, but a close above and we wouldn’t be surprised to see that spur additional relief with a potential move back towards resistance from 995-1000.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 995-1000, 1013-1015
Pivot: 975 1/2-980
Support: 950*
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Notes
- Weekly Export Sales: The weekly export sales report from the USDA will be out at 7:30am CT. Expectations for old crop sales range from 100k-500k metric tons. The range of estimates for new crop sales is between 400k-1,000,000k MT.
- NOPA Crush Estimates: The average estimate comes in at 180.83 million bushels, if realized that would be up 3% from last month and 4.3% from last year. Oil stocks are estimated to come in near 1.616 million lbs. That would be down .4% from last month but up 5.8% from last year.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at price averages for November soybeans over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years. *Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
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