herd of cows

Are Livestock Markets Out of Gas?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Livestock markets have had a nice run higher over the last few months but appear to be stalling out. Is downside risk starting to outweigh upside potential?

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Live Cattle

December live cattle futures softened up yesterday, but it wasn’t enough to do any technical damage. We’ve seen a risk-off trade in many commodities recently with the surging US Dollar. That doesn’t need to be correlated to cattle complex, but it could impact overall flows which is something to keep in mind. Support comes in at 182.82-183.32, if that gives way we could see selling accelerate on the back of long liquidation.

Resistance: 186.60-187.675***, 189.47-190.075****
Pivot: 184.55-185.20
Support:182.82-183.325***, 180.00-180.50***


Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were lower on Wednesday with choice cuts 1.33 lower to 306.94 and select cuts 1.26 lower to 278.66. Tuesday’s slaughter was reported at 125k head, 1k more than the same day last year and in line with last week.

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart appears to show that the first half of November is a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally, but the back half can be more favorable. Whether or not that rings true this year is TBD.

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 940 futures and options contracts, all but 6 contracts being short covering. This extended they weekly buying streak to 7 weeks (important to note this data is through November 5th and does not include the end of the week). Funds are now net long 101,453 contracts. That registers as the largest net long position since September of 2023.


Feeder Cattle (January)

January feeder cattle futures were in a relatively narrow rang yesterday, failing to make a run at recent highs which come in near 245.55. A continued failure here would mark lower highs, which could open the door for lower lows. Significant support remains intact from 239.62-240.15. That pocket has been tested 4 times in the last two weeks, another test of that could be enough to break it. A break below opens the door for a drop to 4-star support from 237.50-237.95.

Resistance: 245.55**, 246.82-247.60***, 249.85-250.80****
Pivot: 243.00-243.95
Support: 239.62-240.15***, 237.50-237.95****

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for January futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Looking at this chart, it looks like November can be a pretty choppy and indecisive month for price trends.

Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 2.4k contracts, which puts Funds net long 10,130 contracts, the largest net long since topping out in March.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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