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Grain Markets Mixed to Start a New Week

Grain Express

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Grain markets are mixed to start the week with corn near UNCH, wheat higher, and soybeans under pressure.

Corn

Friday’s Recap
Corn futures were higher Friday with the March contract finishing the session at 435’2, adding 4’4 (1.04%). Overall the session saw 472,017 contracts traded, with March volume coming in at 149,876. Combined open interest rose by 4,722, or 0.28%, with March up by 16,748 (2.83%) to 608,781.

Technicals
The market got hit hard on Thursday but made a nice recovery on Friday, trading bac near technical resistance from 425-426 1/2. December options expiration is this Friday which could play a role in price action. If you’re just looking at the open interest, you’d make the case for 420 being a potential magnet into expiration this week. With option expiration looming, we will be shifting our focus to March futures next week. If you’re in December futures, you will want to consider rolling or exiting before the end of the week.

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 425-426 1/2***, 432 1/2-434 1/4***, 446-447****
  • Pivot: 419 3/4-420
  • Support:409 1/4-410 1/2****, 397-401 1/4****


Popular Options
Option volumes were largest for the Dec 420 call (4,700) and the Dec 420 put (5,542). Option open interest is greatest for the July 450 calls at 41,999, and the Dec 400 puts at 33,781.

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility finished slightly higher as CVL added 0.038 to close the day at 16.14. The 30-day historical volatility ended the day adding 3.58% to a one month high of 19.46%. The CVL Skew finished the session moderately down, off by 0.36 to close the day at 1.37.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart seems to indicate that November can be a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally but can stage somewhat of a Santa Clause Rally through December. Whether or not that plays true this year is TBD.

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 96.7k contracts, 3/4 of which was short covering. None the less, the recent buying spree expands the Managed Money net long position to 99,779, the largest net long position since February of 2023!

Wheat

Friday’s Recap
March Wheat futures settled at 554’0 Friday, gaining 5’6 (1.05%). Across all maturities, a heavy 183,994 contracts were traded, with 71,836 done in the March maturity. Combined open interest shed 709 (0.15%) to end the session with 466,191 outstanding. The March maturity rose 4.85%, or 709, to finish at 209,347.

Technicals
The technical breakdown in wheat started to subside on Friday, whether or not that is just a dead cat bounce is still TBD. 544 1/4 is the line in the sand that the Bulls want to close back above. 557 1/2-560 1/2 is the more significant resistance point. This had been old support and was the recent breakdown pocket. Consecutive closes above here are needed to neutralize the bearish chart setup.

Technical Levels of Importance

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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