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Livestock Market Volatility Set to Rise?

Livestock Round Up

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Cattle futures firm on Friday while lean hogs come under pressure.  More of the same to start the week?

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures attempted to stage a rally on Friday but fell flat. The strong move higher early in the session likely came on the back of a moonshot in feeder cattle. The inability to maintain those gains is a bit of a caution flag in the near term. A break and close below Friday’s low could spark pressure down to our next support pocket, 180.00-180.50.

Resistance: 186.60-187.675***, 189.47-190.075****
Pivot: 184.55-185.20
Support: 182.50-182.82***, 180.00-180.50***


Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were sharply lower Friday afternoon with choice cuts .46 lower to 303.34 and select cuts .52 lower to 276.14. The five-area average price for live steers on Friday as 184.74. Friday’s slaughter was reported at 120k head, unchanged from the same day last year but 4k less than last week.

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart appears to show that the first half of November is a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally, but the back half can be more favorable. Whether or not that rings true this year is TBD.

Commitment of Traders Update

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 5.6k futures and options contracts.  This extended they weekly buying streak to 8 weeks. Funds are now net long 107,043 contracts.  That registers as the largest net long position since July of 2023.  

Volatility Update

CME CVOL for live cattle has moved higher over the last week but is still at the lower end of the year’s range. 

Feeder Cattle (January)

January feeder cattle futures broke out above resistance at 245.55 which spurred a swift move higher, back near the September highs. With the index moving higher and November futures set to expire this week, that likely spurred the convergence.

Resistance: 245.55*, 246.82-247.60***, 249.85-250.80****
Pivot: 243.00-243.95
Support: 239.62-240.15***, 237.50-237.95****

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for January futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Looking at this chart, it looks like November can be a pretty choppy and indecisive month for price trends.

Commitment of Traders Report 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 2.4k contracts, which puts Funds net long 10,130 contracts, the largest net long since topping out in March. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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