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E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6098.50, up 35.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21,536.50, up 255.00
E-mini NQ futures confirmed the breakout on a closing basis yesterday, and AMZN was the latest Mag 7 to set a fresh record high, but NVDA had the most notable day in the group, +3.5%. There are now two sessions to go, including Nonfarm Payroll on Friday, for the E-mini NQ to confirm what we see as a very significant breakout on a weekly closing basis.
Today, we look to weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT, along with Trade Balance data. While additional Fed speak will trickle out, we heard from Fed Chair Powell yesterday, who did speak less negatively on the labor market while acknowledging that the committee must cut rates more to get to neutral. On the heels of yesterday’s ADP and a miss on Services PMI, the odds of a rate cut on December 18th have risen to 74%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Ultimately, today will set the stage for tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll report.
ADP Payrolls, the private survey giving the first glimpse of November jobs data was released at 7:15 am CT. It came in at 146k, below the 166k expected, while October was revised from 233k to 184k. Services data is up next with the final SPGI PMI read for November at 8:45 am CT, and the more closely watched ISM report at 9:00 am CT. Later in the day, all eyes will be on comments from Fed Char Powell at 12:45 pm CT.
With the E-mini NQ breaking out, we noted yesterday that we will use our Pivot and point of balance at 21,340-21,341, to define the bulls being clearly in the driver’s seat as the session and week unfold, and doing such will continue to confirm the breakout and place a first target on the E-mini NQ of 21,566-21,569. Here we are, basically testing the target this morning, and in addition, the E-mini S&P has stuck its nose above 6100, hitting key resistance. Today, we believe higher prices will be ushered with continued price action above our new Pivot and point of balance in the..
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